COVID-19 UPDATE: Vaccinations reach 8.5 million, 2X vs week ago. CA woefully behind. Mondays have been the worst day of the week for the past two months.

Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.

We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:
– Monday
– Tuesday
– Wednesday
– SKIP THURSDAY
– Friday

STRATEGY: 6 of the past 7 Mondays, S&P 500 has been down…
The CDC only provides vaccination data 5 days a week, so Monday reported figure is actually for 3 days worth.  So it can be “lumpy” if one is watching the reported daily figures.  Still, the pace of vaccinations in the US continues to surge. 

– 8.5 million Americans have received a vaccination
– a week ago, 4.3 million, so 2X in 1 week
– still, you can see the pace is really ramping up sharply.
– we expect US to reach 1 million per day this week

Source: CDC and Fundstrat


US vaccinating at 3X the rate of confirmed cases = getting ahead of the curve…
We have plotted the vaccinations vs confirmed cases ratio and you can see this has ramped up to 3X currently.  
– at 1 million per day, this would be ~5X
– at 5X, the US is vaccinating faster than “estimated infections”

Thus, the good news is the US is now getting ahead of the curve on vaccinations.

Source: CDC and Fundstrat


Weekly % of the population vaccinated by states… Nebraska could reach 30% of the population by March
At the state level, we also calculated the weekly pace that the state’s population is getting vaccinated.  This is based upon:

– reported vaccinations for the last 3 data points
– converted to the weekly rate
– calculated as % of population

Leading the US are Nebraska and West Virginia.  At Nebraska’s pace, 30% of the population will be vaccinated by early March.  Wow 
– CA is near the bottom, at only about 1% per week

Source: CDC and Fundstrat 


But the slowness in rolling out the vaccine is also simple logistics.  Look at the tweet from Arizona below.  The state has over 50,000 available appointments, and 43,960 have registered.

– the state has more openings (50,000) than actual appointments.
– so like less than half of available inventory is spoken for

Yikes

Source: Twitter


Daily cases are flattening too, based upon 7D delta in daily cases.  There is some distortion due to the holiday periods, but by the end of this week, we should be fully clear of these distortions.  And while some states are still seeing gains, like CA and NY, many of the hardest hits states in Wave 3 (WI, IL, ID, ND, SD and UT) are seeing a slowdown.

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  


Stocks do better Tuesday-Friday and just “skip Monday”
While having CNBC in the background, Michael Santoli yesterday mentioned a stat that surprised me.  He said that the “weekly low” for S&P 500 has been made on Monday in each of the past 6 weeks.  I asked tireless Ken, our head of data science, to provide some context.

– 6 of 7 past Mondays, S&P 500 is down 
– Tuesday, markets up 5 of last 7 weeks, avg gain is +0.5%
– Every day except Monday has seen positive gains and high win-ratio

So, I guess this means stocks should be better now that Monday is “behind us.”

Source: Bloomberg



Still using the same rough roadmap for 2021
COVID-19 is unpredictable and the renewed post-holiday surge in cases reminds us that the virus remains prevalent.  And the path of equity markets is equally unpredictable but our rough roadmap for 2021 remains as follows:

– rally into Feb-April peaking at S&P 500 ~4,000
– pullback towards 3,500 
– rally into YE towards 4,300

Source: Bloomberg and Fundstrat 

2021 Theme #5: Violence in America –> REZI not HON
Yesterday, we published a list of stocks that have exposure to Violence in America, either by providing security services, production of security equipment or have products in general demand.  Several pointed out that Honeywell has spun out its security unit, as Resideo Technologies.  The ticker is REZI.

I should have known this, since my good friend Adam Segel, and stock picker extraordinaire, had talked about this name in late December.  I had no idea this was a HON spin-off.

– REZI replaces HON

If you have other names, please send those thoughts my way


Stocks that benefit from “Violence in cities”…
We have put together a list of companies that are involved in some aspect of home or personal security.  This is an initial list and it will expand as we find additional ideas. 

– We are not “recommending” these stocks, but rather, bringing these stocks to your attention.

Video Surveillance
– Digital Ally (DGLY)
– FLIR Systems (FLIR)
– Iteris (ITI)
– NAPCO Security (NSSC)
– NXT-ID (NXTD)
– Recon Technology (RCON)
– Stanley Black &Decker (SWK)
– Ubiquiti (UI)


Home Security
– ADT (ADT)
– Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) 
– Arlo Technologies (ARLO)
– The Brinks Company (BCO)
– Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS)
– Resideo Technology (REZI) 
– Monitronics International (SCTY)
– Vivint Smart Home (VVNT)


Personal Security + Other
– Axon Enterprises (AAXN)
– Image Sensing Systems (ISNS)


Drones
– AeroVironment (AVAV)
– Ambarella (AMBA)
– Boeing (BA)
– NVIDIA (NVDA)
– Parrot (PAOTF)
– Plymouth Rock Technologies (PLRTF)

ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:
We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios.  We are including the links here:

– Granny Shots  –>       core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios
– Trifecta epicenter  –> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)
– Biden vs Trump  –>   based on correlation to either candidate odds

Granny Shots:
Full stock list here –> Click here
Tickers: AAPL, AMZN, AXP, BF.B, CSCO, EBAY, GOOG, GRMN, GWW, INTC, KLAC, LEN, LOW, MNST, MSFT, MXIM, NVDA, OMC, PM, PYPL, QCOM, TSLA, XLNX

Trifecta Epicenter (*):
Full stock list here –> Click here
Tickers: AN, GM, F, HOG, GRMN, LEG, TPX, PHM, TOL, NWL, HAS, MAT, PII, MGM, HLT, MAR, NCLH, RCL, WH, WYND, SIX, DRI, SBUX, FL, GPS, LB, CRI, VFC, GPC, BBY, FITB, WTFC, ASB, BOH, FHN, FNB, PB, PBCT, RF, STL, TFC, WBS, PNFP, SBNY, NYCB, MTG, AGNC, EVR, IBKR, VIRT, BK, STT, SYF, BHF, AGCO, OC, ACM, WAB, EMR, GNRC, NVT, CSL, GE, MMM, IEX, PNR, CFX, DOV, MIDD, SNA, XYL, FLS, DAL, JBLU, LUV, MIC, KEX, UNP, JBHT, R, UBER, UHAL, HP, NOV, SLB, EOG, PXD, HFC, MPC, PSX, XEC, LYB, EXP, MLM, CF, MOS, ESI, NEU, NUE, RS, SON, STOR, HIW, CPT, UDR, KIM, NNN, VNO, JBGS, RYN

Biden White House vs. Trump White House:
Full stock list here –> Click here

(*) Please note that the stocks rated OW on this list meet the requirements of our investment theme as of the publication date. We do not monitor this list day by day. A stock taken off this list means it no longer meets our investment criteria, but not necessarily that it is neutral rated or should be sold. Please consult your financial advisor to discuss your risk tolerance and other factors that characterize your unique investment profile.

POINT 1: Daily cases at 195,669, +28,282 vs 7D ago –> still holiday distortions
The latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 195,669, up +28,282 vs 7D ago.  
– 7D delta rose to ~70,000 last Friday, but don’t forget 7 days before last Friday was New Year’s Day
– hence, as you can see, the holiday effect is going to cause distortions for several weeks
– over Thanksgiving, it was not until a full two weeks after Thanksgiving that underlying trends were visible
– this will be the case with current data, meaning mid-Jan is when we can start to get a better handle on trends

Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project  and Fundstrat


The 7D delta has been positive since the Christmas weekend
– because of holiday scheduled closures/etc, distortions in the data will be prevalent until mid-Jan
– so I would look at trends with a grain of salt

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  

 Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat 

Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat  




POINT 2: Vaccinations reach 8.5 million, 2X vs week ago.  CA woefully behind
The CDC only provides vaccination data 5 days a week, so Monday reported figure is actually for 3 days worth.  So it can be “lumpy” if one is watching the reported daily figures.  Still, the pace of vaccinations in the US continues to surge.  

– 8.5 million Americans have received a vaccination
– a week ago, 4.3 million, so 2X in 1 week
– still, you can see the pace is really ramping up sharply.
– we expect US to reach 1 million per day this week

Source: CDC and Fundstrat


US vaccinating at 3X the rate of confirmed cases = getting ahead of the curve…
We have plotted the vaccinations vs confirmed cases ratio and you can see this has ramped up to 3X currently.  
– at 1 million per day, this would be ~5X
– at 5X, the US is vaccinating faster than “estimated infections”

Thus, the good news is the US is now getting ahead of the curve on vaccinations.

Source: CDC and Fundstrat


The ratio of vaccinations to cases…
At the state level, we also calculated the “vaccination/case” ratio and sorted from highest to lowest.  As shown below, ND and SD are among the best ratio.  Larger states like NY and CA are considerably lower:

– NY is at 3.1X which is the national average
– CA is at 1.7X, which is among the worst in the US (see below)

Source: CDC and Fundstrat



Weekly % of the population vaccinated by states… Nebraska could reach 30% of the population by March
At the state level, we also calculated the weekly pace that the state’s population is getting vaccinated.  This is based upon:

– reported vaccinations for the last 3 data points
– converted to the weekly rate
– calculated as % of population

Leading the US are Nebraska and West Virginia.  At Nebraska’s pace, 30% of the population will be vaccinated by early March.  Wow 
– CA is near the bottom, at only about 1% per week

Source: CDC and Fundstrat


Still, and as we noted above, the ratio of vaccinations to cases is becoming more favorable, meaning the US is gaining traction against the vaccine.  

Source: World in Data and Fundstrat




POINT 3: “Personal security” devices that are worth a look…
We certainly hope that 2021 proves to be a less violent year than 2020.  But the NYC metro area, where our firm has our offices and where I am the most familiar, has certainly become more “lawless” compared to just even 12 months ago.  And I thought it would be useful to highlight 3 personal security products:

– Flare –> personal safety bracelet that can send a “silent” distress signal with GPS and message
– Micro StunGun –> cited by several home security websites
– BMW flamethrower (only available in South Africa) –> to deter car jackers


The Flare was named by Time Magazine as one of the best inventions of 2020.  So this product has already received accolades.  This is a battery powered bracelet

– pairs with a smartphone
– can trigger a “fake phone call” to get rid of creeps
– can send 911/GPS alert if one feels personal security is at risk
– can be “discreet” or stealth alert such as a silent alarm
– battery lasts 1-2 years, no need to charge every night (useful)

Source: https://getflare.com/products

The product has a variety of styles and finishes and price points.  And the price points look pretty reasonable at ~$125-ish per device.  
– there is no monthly fee
– seems like a decent insurance policy

Source: https://getflare.com/products


The second product is a micro stun gun by Vipertek and is a flashlight and stungun combination.  This is available from Amazon.com for $9.98.  Interestingly, this product was mentioned in multiple personal security websites and I don’t know if this is because of sponsored placements.  But I thought I would highlight this.

Source: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01F8MFGSA/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B01F8MFGSA&linkCode=as2&tag=safety_personal-safety-devices-20&linkId=77429492a4bc607d4a318efa6003b2cf

This has >1,980 reviews.  And I realize many reviews are fake on Amazon.com so we cannot always trust what customers say.  This one below surely seems to be one that is not a sponsored placement.

Source: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01F8MFGSA/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B01F8MFGSA&linkCode=as2&tag=safety_personal-safety-devices-20&linkId=77429492a4bc607d4a318efa6003b2cf#customerReviews



The last product is only available in South Africa.  And I am not sure it is still commercially available today. This is the story from a CNN article, published in 1998, or about 22 years ago.

http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/africa/9812/11/flame.thrower.car/


This was developed to thwart car jackings in that nation.  Car jackings are still common today.  The product has a flammable gas, fired through 4 nozzles on each side.  And the driver, if threatened, can trigger the flame throwers.

– as you can see, this is a strong deterrent to car jackings

Source: CNN


Apparently, this is legal in that nation.

Source: https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2020/10/21/carjackings-delivery-vehicle-thefts-spike-during-pandemic



The surge in car jackings in the US is pretty surprising. In DC, it is up 117% YoY and in Louisville, KY, it is up 185%.  These are massive increases.