The equity market rally that began at the June low for the S&P 500 continues to grind higher despite hawkish rhetoric from nearly all Fed governors suggesting that the “Dovish Pivot” interpretation has been incorrect.  Although there was a huge payroll employment figure released last week, investors are being more influenced by today’s softish CPI data release relative to expectations. 

Thus, it appears right now that the only things that really matter for equity markets are the belief that the inflation story is done, economic slowing will be contained, the Fed is not only basically finished but will also be easing fairly soon, and because of this, the negative earnings cycle that I have been forecasting, and getting, does not matter.  

Based on my research and my over two decades of experience on the Street, it is quite hard to come to these conclusions that seem to be the dominant driving factors impacting the ongoing equity market rally.   As I have written about over the last several months, my ASM indicator for the S&P 500 has always reached its max negative reading BEFORE the final price low for the index going back to 1990.   Is this time different?   Has the market already made its low and bec...

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