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Last week, I did a deep dive into my single stock quantitative selection model that I call ERM. As discussed in this week’s Whispers note, this process has increased my level of bearishness.  The equity market continues to bounce around on each piece of released macro news, but as we are about to begin the 2Q22 earnings season, the focus will begin to shift from macro back towards micro and idiosyncratic news as Corporate America is set to announce their results for the quarter just ended.  Based on my research, I expect that the forward guidance provided by management teams will be on the soft side and relatively weaker than the commentary during the 1Q22 reporting period.  Thus, it would not be surprising to see the ASM indicator for the S&P 500 fall even further, as I have been writing about for a few months, which has and will continue creating significant headwinds to sustainable rallies in the equity market. 

My key metrics continue to suggest that that the Fed is likely to keep tightening until a clear 3-5 month trend of moderating...

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