Dunks Update

I've been discussing my cautious and unfavorable outlook on US equities for a few months now, and there have been no significant changes in my key indicators to suggest that a change in view is appropriate.  While we are not in a "hide under your desk" market now, the backdrop for equity investors remains quite challenging to say the least.  Last week, markets finally had a positive finish after eight consecutive weeks down on the DJIA.  The symmetric nature of the price performance gains to the sectors that experienced the greatest losses in the previous drawdown provides some clue that the bounce was little more than short covering and positioning tweaks by institutional investors. There has been no shift on the macro front in my view.  As I stated previously, my analysis suggests that tactical rallies may occur but that they will likely be of short duration. I ultimately expect them to fail despite how sharp the rebound may appear to be.  I continue to highlight the risks below as providing strong headwinds for the equity market:

  • Russia/Ukraine conflict - no end in sight
  • Elevated energy prices and their negative impact on both inflation and consumer demand
  • Interest rate pressures
  • Less accommodative monetary policy and now the start of Quantitative Tightening II
  • Economic growth slowdown fears are beginning to increase, which will likely run concurrently with my expectations for 1-5 months, at minimum, of an earnings revision cutting cycle that disproportionately hits all things cyclical
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