Stacks
$STX
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WEATHERING THE STORM Heading into Q1, the key risks identified were: (1) A potential QRA supply shock, as long-term interest rates could surge due to a possible shift in bond issuance towards longer-duration securities, (2) the repricing of interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve downplayed expectations regarding the timing and frequency of such cuts, and (3) concerns regarding the dynamics between the expiration of the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP)...
QRA IN LINE WITH MARKET EXPECTATIONS _THE RESULTS_ The Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) was the first of two major macro events to transpire on Wednesday. Leading up to this, on Monday, there was an indication that the net borrowing for the current quarter would be $760 billion, which is $55 billion lower than the initial $815 billion estimate, and the total funding needs for Q2 would be just over...
THE GBTC PROBLEM We have been watching spot BTC ETF flows closely since their launch two weeks ago, and while overall net flows remain decidedly positive, the market seems hung up on GBTC outflows. As a reminder, the outflows we care the most about are those from entities that are not rotating into other spot BTC ETFs. This is comprised of some speculative capital that played the run-up into ETF...
OUTLOOK OVERVIEW Thank you to everyone who joined our annual outlook call this week. We were fortunate to have a lot of success last year in helping our clients and subscribers navigate the crypto market and we look forward to leveling up again this year. For those who missed the outlook, the replay is now available, along with the deck, but a quick summary of our outlook is below.Big Takeaway:...
INITIAL THOUGHTS ON ETF LAUNCHES The past week has marked a pivotal moment in the evolution of the crypto industry, a testament to the remarkable journey of an asset class that emerged from a distrubuted community of open source software developers just 15 years ago. This was evidenced by the successful launch of all 11 eligible Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday morning. Assessing the success of an ETF launch is a...
Bitcoin continues to slowly chop higher ahead of this week's highly anticipated decision from the SEC regarding the Bitcoin spot ETF. On Friday, issuers submitted their final 19b-4 forms, and this morning, all the S-1 forms were filed, offering a glimpse into the emerging fee war. Bitcoin is currently trading just above $46k. Meanwhile, $ETH is up 4%, reclaiming the $2300 level. Following a mild pullback across the altcoin market,...
QUICK RECAP First and foremost, we would like to extend a Happy New Year to all our clients and subscribers. The past year was indeed eventful, marked by banking crises, significant court victories, and BlackRock's foray into the sector – truly a remarkable journey. Our Core Strategy, though it lagged behind the King, performed well. This was particularly supported by the strong performance of our altcoin basket in Q4. We...
LET IT FLOW As we approach the holiday weekend and the final week of the year, which is typically marked by lower liquidity due to many stepping away from their desks, one might expect to see a dialing back of risk and a slowdown in trading volumes. However, contrary to these expectations, most data suggest animal spirits seem poised for a rally through the New Year. CME futures data, the...
The âSanta Clause rallyâ is in full effect within equity markets, as the QQQ (+0.08%) has made a new all-time high, and the SPY (+0.07%) is less than 1% away from doing the same. Crypto markets are joining the fun, with $BTC (+3.90%) rising to just under $44k and $ETH (+2.99%) trading near $2,350. Bitcoin layer-2, Stacks ($STX), is outperforming today, rising over 26% amid Bitcoin monthly transactions reaching an...
After experiencing an overnight drawdown during Asian market hours, cryptoassets are witnessing a notable bounce at the US market open. $BTC is at the forefront, rebounding to $41.5k after briefly dipping to $40.5k last evening. Meanwhile, $ETH is trailing behind, currently down about 1% to $2170. Although altcoins are broadly lower at the start of the day, select ones like $STX, a Bitcoin layer 2 network, are performing well, likely...
OI RINSE TO START THE WEEK This week the crypto market started off with a bang, marked by a liquidations-driven downturn on Sunday evening. The perpetual futures market witnessed a low liquidity liquidation cascade that wiped out approximately $2.7 billion in open interest across all cryptoassets, according to data from CoinGlass. At the time, we perceived this event as a normal cleansing of overleveraged weekend positions and viewed any immediate...
