ARB Protocol
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ETHTFS COMING TO A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT NEAR YOU Thursday marked a broad-based rebound in equities and crypto, with a modest bounce in the bond market tagging along. This crypto rally received an extra push from some noteworthy developments. Our flash insight on Thursday morning highlighted Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas' commentary, suggesting a high likelihood that the SEC would greenlight ETH futures ETFs this week due to the imminent government shutdown, which...
Equity indices are relatively flat in the last trading session of the third quarter, with the QQQ (+0.04%) faring slightly better than the SPY (-0.11%). U.S. Treasury yields are retreating after August PCE data showed softer than expected readings for MoM headline and core PCE. ETH -3.47% (+1.07%) is leading crypto markets, trading at $1,670, as the first Ether Futures ETFs are set to begin trading early next week, while BTC -1.46% ...
RATES SURGE ON HIGHER FOR LONGER As expected, Fed Chair Powell took to the podium yesterday and kept interest rates unchanged. Concurrently, he unveiled the Fed’s new dot plot, which forecasts one more rate hike for this year but two fewer cuts for the next year. This was perceived as more hawkish than anticipated by both traditional and crypto markets. The dot plot and Powell's rhetoric collectively signal a 'higher...
TACTICAL CAUTION Throughout this year, we've been navigating a complex interplay between overarching macro influences and crypto-specific events. Milestones such as BlackRock's ETF application, Ripple's legal win over the SEC, and Grayscale's similar success have been promising, yet they've occurred amidst a peak in global liquidity. This timing has effectively curtailed any long-lasting bullish momentum in the crypto markets. While we've been vocal proponents of maintaining risk exposure, the convergence...
THE US DOLLAR WRECKING BALL CONTINUES Last week, our near-term outlook remained uncertain, though we leaned toward the possibility that a positive catalyst, such as a victory for Grayscale, could coincide with easing liquidity conditions. This would mark a significant departure from the tightening conditions—indicated by the DXY—that followed the last two crypto-specific catalysts this year. The likelihood of interest rates reaching a peak, the dollar beginning to decline, and...
Today's video discusses implications of Grayscale's landmark victory, the outlook for a Bitcoin spot ETF, DeFi sector regulation, and three major risks that could create tactical headwinds despite all the postitive catalysts. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/859942814/328e8c2424? share=copy Tickers in this report: BTC -1.46% , OP -1.06% , ETH -3.47% , RPL -4.34% , ARB -2.56% , SOL -1.01% , UNI -1.34%
GRAYSCALE VICTORY As recently discussed, we’ve been awaiting either short-term relief in liquidity conditions—indicated by falling interest rates, a declining DXY, and increasing central bank liquidity—or the realization of crypto-specific catalysts for better price action. This week, we received encouraging news on both fronts. The courts have ruled that the SEC acted in an arbitrary and capricious manner when denying the spot Bitcoin ETF. _Source: Court Decision in Grayscale v...
Today's video discusses liquidity conditions, two potentially pivotal events, Optimism's outperformance, and what DXY is saying about where the market is headed next. For our latest Crypto Strategy note click here. https://vimeo. com/857730786/38b7b306bc? share=copy Tickers in this report: BTC -1.46% , OP -1.06% , ETH -3.47% , RPL -4.34% , ARB -2.56% , SOL -1.01%
MACRO HAS BEEN WINNING THE BATTLE Last week, we advanced the idea that the recent decline in volatility might be traced to two competing forces: (1) positive industry-specific tailwinds and (2) negative macro headwinds. Additionally, the recent dip in macro correlations could be attributed to unique catalysts, notably the BlackRock ETF application. Our thinking was that without further industry-specific catalysts, traditional macro correlations would likely return. As evidenced by the...
After weeks of choppy price action, crypto markets fell this morning, with Bitcoin dropping 3.18% and ETH -3.47% dropping 2.26%. Higher beta altcoins were hit harder - ARB -2.56% , SOL -1.01% , and OP -1.06% declined 5.50%, 5.82%, and 4.43, respectively. Despite poor performance from most mid-cap altcoins, on-chain activity on Ethereum has remained relatively high, with many on-chain coins such as UNIBOT, rising significantly, perhaps pulling liquidity away from the altcoins listed on centralized...