Stacks

$STX

$0.0067

0.03

Equity indices are showing muted declines today, but the SPY (-0.13%) and QQQ (-0.02%) are still on pace for respective 18th and 17th positive weeks out of the last 21. Crypto markets are showing more pronounced losses, with total market capitalization falling by 3%. $BTC (-2.89%) has fallen to $63.6k while $ETH (-4.53%) has dropped to $3,340. Bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive days of outflows totaling $836 million, representing...

MARKET SHRUGS AT HOT CPI The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a hotter inflationary environment than forecasted for February. Despite the surprise in the numbers, market participants appeared largely unmoved, suggesting that the potential impact had already been factored into their calculations prior to the release. This resilience reflects a broader sentiment that a rates-driven selloff, in response to the CPI figures, is not a significant near-term risk....

FLOWS BEGET MORE FLOWS We have recently discussed the potential return of crypto being correlated with equities due to the new category of market participants entering the fold. However, price action this week suggests that inflows into the BTC ETFs may be throwing water onto that theory. It seems apparent that, at least in the near-term, that the ETF flows narrative is gaining steam, and it is likely that the...

Bitcoin surged higher yesterday evening during Asian market hours, climbing from $54.8k to reach $57k. This increase followed a day of impressive inflows into spot $BTC ETFs. $ETH has taken a backseat for the time being, currently trading slightly above $3.2k. $STX is performing well, up over 6%, but other recent market leaders are lagging. It appears that flows have shifted towards more speculative corners of the market, with memecoins...

Leading cryptoassets are experiencing a significant breakout this morning, with $BTC finally surpassing the $53k mark after roughly two weeks of consolidation between $50k and $52.5k. Despite a pullback in ETHBTC this morning, $ETH has continued its upward trajectory, reaching new YTD highs above $3.1k. $STX is also witnessing a notable rise, climbing nearly 10% today, aligning with its pattern of performing as high beta relative to BTC. Among other...

ETH GAINING RELATIVE MOMENTUM Given the success of Solana and Bitcoin's persistent dominance in this bull market, many have been quick to write off ETH. There is no doubt that ETH faces its own set of challenges, including a complex modular stack and potential cannibalization by Layer 2 solutions, which, while crucial to ETH's scaling roadmap, can sometimes fragment liquidity and users. Despite these issues, ETH continues to advance along...

Equity markets are under pressure this morning, with the QQQ and SPX indices dropping over 1% and approximately 0.70%, respectively. This downturn occurs amidst a backdrop of a declining DXY and lower rates, underscoring a continued decoupling between risk assets and the bond market since early January. The crypto market is also experiencing a pullback, following Bitcoin's premarket attempt to surpass the $53k mark and Ethereum's notable weekend achievement of...

BREAKING AWAY While we maintain that macro conditions are still the most critical factor in assessing the medium/long-term trajectory of BTC prices, daily returns of the leading cryptoasset continue to exhibit a lack of defined correlation with any major macro asset. To us, the biggest reason for this sustained lack of correlation is the advent of the spot BTC ETF. A prime example of how ETFs are influencing BTC's performance...

A flurry of economic data this morning has provided mixed signals for markets. On one side, retail sales decreased 0.8% MoM versus an expected 0.2% decline. On the other side, jobless claims came in lower than expected and the Empire State manufacturing survey showed higher than expected prices paid. U.S. equities are mixed, with the SPY gaining 0.29% and the QQQ showing a modest decline of 0.05%. $BTC (+0.75%) continues its...

Monday morning picked up right where yesterday left off, with $BTC surging toward $50k, momentarily touching the key level across several exchanges. The rally appears to be driven by spot market demand, as evidenced by a significant spike in spot volume while funding rates remain muted (see chart below). A substantial portion of this volume is likely entering the market via spot ETFs chasing the positive weekend price action. Concurrently,...

WEATHERING THE STORM Heading into Q1, the key risks identified were: (1) A potential QRA supply shock, as long-term interest rates could surge due to a possible shift in bond issuance towards longer-duration securities, (2) the repricing of interest rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve downplayed expectations regarding the timing and frequency of such cuts, and (3) concerns regarding the dynamics between the expiration of the Reverse Repurchase Agreement (RRP)...