The Fastest Horse

Jan 18, 2024 • 5 Min Read

Outlook Overview

Big Takeaway: Crypto cycle enters acceleration phase, flows increase, majors reach new ATHs, and animal spirits return in full force. Possibly a Bumpy Q1: Short-term headwinds include the market repricing the timing of rate cuts and a likely increase in coupon issuance in Q1 (DXY higher), in this environment idiosyncratic performance matters more. New ATHs in BTC, ETH, and SOL: Medium-term tailwinds include rate cuts and tapering QT in an election year which are favorable conditions for risk assets. Asian CBs are also expected to continue easing. Among liquidity-sensitive assets crypto is the fastest horse. Alongside these tailwinds are industry specific factors like the halving and increased institutional access post-ETF. Crypto Equities: Crypto equities underperform BTC on a move higher in rates (Q1), but finish the year much higher, retaining historical high beta relationship to ...

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