Encouraging bounce, but more needed to have conviction Array ( [cookie] => 0f5c54-0f2ecb-f55ae1-152b70-e9338a [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 207598 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
SPX and QQQ look to be trying to stabilize and rally after a very sharp two-week decline into this week. Trends in DJIA and Equal-weighted S&P 500 look far better in the short run, than SPX and QQQ which remain within two-week downtrends. Thus, while Friday’s rally was encouraging, it can’t be said with confidence that a move back to new highs should happen right away. However, it’s expected that next week brings about a rally into FOMC meeting, but sufficient upside progress needs to happen to argue that this move can continue without any further weakness into August. The current cycle composite seems to show a larger likelihood of an early to-mid- August bottom vs. late July. Thus, while it's right to be optimistic for an eventual push back to new all-time highs this Fall, I suspect it will prove choppy, and not without some backing and filling. US Dollar and Treasury yields are both beginning to rollover which looks good for risk assets given recent correlation trends.
Overall, the market bounce looks to have occurred on schedule, and I remain optimistic that this can carry Equities higher into next week’s FOMC meeting. However, more will need to occur to suggest this rally can get back to new highs without any further consolidation into August.
Momentum has turned more negative given the selling from mid-July, and the downtrend remains in place from mid-July, following a break of the uptrend from April. Thus, while there remain many reasons to be optimistic on Equities between now and early-to-mid-September (as well as a rally the last week of July), it’s not wrong to say that Equities have entered a more difficult period in 2H than what happened over the first six months of the year.


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