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Technical Writeups of Super SMID Granny-shot picks
Key Takeaways
- SMCI -1.83% , DECK 0.33% , HCI -0.97% , DFH 2.06% , IBP -2.37% represent the 5 Super SMID Granny-shot selections
- SMCI, DECK, and IBP are carryovers, while HCI and DFH are newly added
SUPER SMID GRANNY-SHOT stocks
Super Micro Computer (SMCI -1.83% - $972.74)
- The first stock that deserves mention is Super Micro Computer. This remains on the list despite its minor consolidation over the last couple of weeks. It should be noted that after gains from January, where it really started the year in the high 200s, it has moved from levels right near 275 up to over $1,200 in a period of about 2 months time.
- It maintains significant momentum on an intermediate term basis, and we have not seen any evidence of that ending despite short-term consolidation and intermediate-term momentum remains bullish
- Near term technical resistance lies right near prior 3/11/24 lows, which is 1025.
- Any ability to get over that level should bring about a push back to new all-time highs, which has initial resistance right near 1229, and then gains above that level likely would lead up to levels right near 1,300 to 1335.
- Unless we see SMCI get down under 855, I expect to see a push back to new all-time highs happen between now and potentially the middle part of April.
Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK 0.33% – $922.44)
- Deckers Outdoors also is a carryover from last month despite DECK and SMCI both having been put into the S&P 500. DECK’s rally back to new all-time highs as of Thursday, 3/21/24, keeps this in a very bullish near-term position.
- This began to accelerate parabolically after it gapped up from last October 2023, and has moved up in a very sharp advance of higher highs and higher lows, gaining ground from levels which at that time were right near $484 to its current level (nearly double that amount) and the stock has gotten up to 953.
- I do not see this area as being any sort of significant resistance, despite that it’s doubled off its lows, but feel that the stock can move up to 1,000 and likely get above that to levels right near 1050, which could have importance.
HCI Group Inc (HCI -0.97% – $118.72)
- Accelerated higher starting last Fall 2023, but its trend became a bit more parabolic earlier this month, rallying up on above-average volume.
- Little resistance looks to lie between current levels and all-time highs from 11/2021.
- Despite overbought momentum, gains look likely to test these all-time highs that lie at 139.80.
- Until/unless its ongoing intermediate-term trend is violated, which would involve a decline down under the low $90’s, further upward progress looks likely into mid-April, in my view.
Dream Finders Homes Inc (DFH 2.06% - $42.07)
- DFH broke back out to new all-time highs on a weekly basis back in December of last year when it exceeded the former weekly close made in June of 2021, which at that time was $32.69.
- Since that time, DFH has shown minor consolidation before pushing up in the last month, and this remains very attractive, having made recent new all-time highs.
- I expect to see further gains out of DFH, with levels of resistance near 48, then 52, and this requires a move down under $30 to expect any minor consolidation.
- US Treasuries rallying on a dovish FOMC view could aid the Homebuilding/Home Construction sector through the Summer.
Installed Building Products (IBP -2.37% – $258.00)
- IBP has successfully advanced up above the 3-week period of consolidation that started in mid-February and has achieved another new all-time high close, with this week’s close above 242.10.
- When looking at the long-term chart of IBP, it has moved up very parabolically after it made a fairly major reverse head and shoulders breakout, which began back initially in May of 2021.
- The act of getting up above 158.18 caused us to move up very sharply, and I suspect that this can reach 300 without any major resistance. That arguably should be the first real area of importance for IBP.
- Pullbacks, when they occur, should constitute buying opportunities, and I expect that support should come in right near 222 on any pullback.
- Similar to the case with DFH 2.06% , US Treasuries rallying on a dovish FOMC view could aid the Homebuilding/Home Construction sector through the Summer.
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