Equal-weighted SPY looks likely to outperform SPY in 2024

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US Equities and Treasuries look to be near resistance, while the US Dollar index has begun to rally.  A majority of the major sectors are also now right near meaningful intermediate-term downtrends.  Until we can see proof of downtrends being convincingly broken across the board, I still view current levels as being a poor risk/reward for new investments without consolidation.  Strength into next Monday should hit a resistance wall, and give way to a two-week pullback into 12/22, which should be led by a bounce in Yields.

Treasury yields started to turn back higher immediately following Friday’s economic data, and I expect that this rise in Yields along with the recent strength in the US Dollar could help to prohibit stocks from escalating further over the next two weeks.  Furthermore, movement over 4.30% in TNX should result in SPX beginning its correction into December expiration.

My comments from yesterday should be repeated, as this looks to be a playbook that can happen into next week.  (“What should be important is to watch Treasury yields carefully, as they could very well turn higher following Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Hourly earnings data.  If this happens, then I suspect the Equity rally should begin...
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