First Word

Equities reacted negatively post Powell, but the key to us remains inflation. As near-term headline risks loom, history suggests market could rally in 4Q.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

We discuss: How markets took FOMC hawkish last week, but we think the key is still inflation, which is on a glidepath lower. Historical study suggests stocks could perform well in Q4 based on price action this year.

Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration: 9:06).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

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Last week was a central bank-intensive week, with policy decisions coming from major central banks including the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan. Volatility was primarily centralized around Wednesday's FOMC decision with the S&P 500 falling 2.8% and US 10 Year surging since Wed as markets digested a "more hawkish" 2024 SEP than originally anticipated. Data from EPFR shows equities had their largest outflow of 2023 last week, underscoring the “vortex of pain” investors are currently in. We are of the belief that the “Fed Higher for Longer” has less to do with inflation and more to do with “higher GDP” aka a stronger economy. Thus, we see this selloff post-FOMC as an overaction. At the end of the day, the Fed operates under a dual mandate: maximum employment and price stability, so we question whether the growth of Real GDP will be a ...

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