July CPI should be a positive surprise, with core CPI well below Street consensus of +0.22% MoM. This should reverse the path of higher rates.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Today's note will include a short video update. We discuss the tape bombs that hit stocks Tuesday including China exports and Moody's regional bank downgrade.  But, the main event is July CPI set to be released Thu and we expect this to be similarly soft like the June CPI.  This likely triggers a sustained rally in stocks, as future Fed hikes diminish and this has the potential to push interest rates lower. Duration (5:11).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Equities came under pressure during the futures session Monday evening as China reported a 14% drop in exports. And before the open Tuesday, Moody's downgraded regional banks on concerns of a recession. These two "tape bombs" caused stocks to open down >1% early in Tuesday trading but equities managed to climb to a loss of -0.4% by the close. Investors remain wary about equities in August and the surge in VIX, yields, stronger dollar and these "tape bombs" are adding to these concerns.

But investors are overlooking the primary and arguably the only fundamental data point in August -- July CPI, which is set to be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET:

The Bloomberg consensus (67 economists) is for July core CPI to come in at +0.22% MoM. The distribution skews higher:...
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