Even as 1Q2022 ends on a sour note, >90% probability that bottom for 2022 in. S&P 500 fell >6% below its 200D and closed >200D = 31 times since WWII = bullish signal

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STRATEGY: S&P 500 fell > 6% below its 200D and closed > 200D = 31 times since WWII = bullish signal
US is the "best house" in a bad neighborhood
As markets complete 1Q2022, it has been a bloody and treacherous 90 days. The macro environment has become decidedly hostile, with visibility on outcomes only emerging 3-6 months from now. Meaning, markets are still facing the same headwinds for the few weeks. These are apparent but let me recap:

- inflationary pressures are building
- current wave is commodity driven and amplified by Russia-Ukraine war
- Geopolitical risks remain high given the risk of Russia-Ukraine war expanding
- interest rates have risen, raising concerns of excess leverage
- Fed has gone into "full hawk" mode
- China is dealing with a major COVID-19 wave and threatens further supply chain issues
- yield curve has inverted

So, it is obvious that the macro environment is uncertain. Contrary to c...

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