Today’s rapid plunge following the About-face broke October lows for both SPX and QQQ, which was unexpected given NVDA’s results and early rally. Thursday’s trading was decidedly negative, and breadth expanded to the downside as the selling grew more pronounced into the afternoon. Overall, despite the break of monthly lows, I’m not betting on this decline extending too much longer before a reversal, and that likely happens next week, right ahead of Thanksgiving. While I talked about a 3-5% decline in November, this break of the larger trend was unexpected in my work and needs to be reversed sooner than later to expect a December rally. While market breadth and momentum have been under pressure for the last few months, I still feel like the final six weeks of 2025 have the potential to show a rally, and that 2026 would be the more likely time for a lengthier decline, not into and throughout December. As discussed, the breadth and momentum remain issues for US stock indices, and now Technology’s weakness has resulted in trend failure for SPX and QQQ. While I respect Elliott-wave theory, Cycles, and DeMark all seem to converge on late November as providing support and a rally, Thursday’s decline was not encouraging and will likely result in fear starting to creep back into the market. Overall, the next 3-5 days certainly have the potential to show more volatility. However, I am betting on a low in Technology by Wednesday of next week, which should help the broader market bounce into December.
My thinking at this point is that SPX likely declines down to 6395-6450 and then bottoms out and rallies into December.
As shown below, Thursday’s reversal and huge high-to-low range are not encouraging, given that breadth got steadily worse throughout Thursday’s session.
S&P 500 Index
QQQ break might require another 2-3 days of weakness before reaching support. Targets lie near 568 before a sharp bounce
Given that I comment on DeMark indicators in my analysis, it’s worth noting that QQQ -2.02% will officially confirm its first weekly Sell signal (“TD 13-Countdown” exhaustion) on a weekly close under 617.14.
This seems unlikely to recover by tomorrow’s close with 6.5 hours of trading on Friday.
However, there are some “Silver linings” that are worth mentioning: The monthly signals are not confirmed, and TD Sequential lies on a 10 count with a TD Sell Setup count of 6. Thus, another 2-3 months of rally would be needed before registering a completed monthly TD Sell Setup.
Furthermore, the daily DeMark charts show the possibility of a TD Buy Setup within three days (if/when price continues to make a lower daily close than the close from four days prior).
In plain English, confirmation of a weekly sell is a technical negative for those who employ these indicators and are important to monitor. However, the lack of a confirmed monthly signal (like what happened in early 2022) is a possible positive.
Overall, it’s hard getting too bullish based on Thursday’s close and even on a minor bounce attempt on Friday, I expect that Monday-Wednesday might bring about some further selling pressure down to SPX-6400 and/or QQQ-568 before a meaningful low.
However, I’m unwilling to bet on QQQ -2.02% going down throughout December based on this week’s decline. Even on this breakdown, most Elliott analysis still shows that this pullback could very well undercut October lows but ultimately still rally higher in December. I’ll have to monitor that in the weeks ahead.
Nasdaq QQQ Invesco ETF – QQQ
NVDA’s reversal has brought this back down to test important support
It’s hard not to notice the large period of consolidation that’s been brewing in recent weeks, with NVDA -2.67% hovering near meaningful support.
Thursday’s reversal following the early bounce was not helpful, and NVDA -2.67% now lies within striking distance of support at $189.
It’s thought that if NVDA -2.67% does break 189 on a weekly close, this would be serious and negative for this stock in the short run and would likely cause a move down to $164.
While there hasn’t been sufficient damage yet to say the trends have turned negative for NVDA -2.67% , its repeated lack of ability to rally is discouraging, and a breakdown would be a bearish omen for NVDA -2.67% and likely Technology for 2026.
Given NVDA -2.67% ’s 8% weighting in SPX and larger weighting in QQQ -2.02% , it’s paramount that this stock hold support and not give way in the weeks ahead.
NVIDIA Corporation
Silver and Gold likely decline into early December before beginning a rally back to highs
The pattern in both Silver and Gold lately isn’t too encouraging towards thinking these can immediately begin a rally back to their highs.
The sharp decline from October gave way to just a brief bounce, and now both seem to be stalling.
Ideally, these patterns should give way to some weakness that would take Silver front-month futures (shown below) down to $47 before turning up in December.
At present, the turn higher in the US Dollar (and particularly USD/JPY) normally brings about weakness in the precious metals as both Japanese Yen and Gold tend to have a positive correlation.
However, it’s the move in Interest rates that looks more important and has had more significance in turning precious metals in recent years.
Until there is a meaningful downturn in long interest rates back down to monthly lows, I suspect that the precious metals might not perform as well on a rising US Dollar and rising Treasury yields.
I’m happy to embrace buying dips in the precious metals, but believe that Silver likely could weaken down to $47 (shown below) before this can start to show strength next month.
For precious metals bulls, my analysis shows that it might be best to hold off on getting too bullish right away on trying to buy dips. There should be an opportunity following a breakdown under November lows in the weeks ahead.
Silver Futures
