Adage still holds that "Buy stocks VIX >50, confirmed by move below 31." Array ( [cookie] => 4e2628-f5d6b8-1a58c0-33b63d-2e8257 [current_usage] => 1 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 0 [user_id] => 0 [reason] => Usage under limits [method] => ) 1 and can accesss 1

VIDEO: We discuss why the VIX move below 31 is an important signal.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 7:26).

The most important signal Monday, in our view, is the VIX closed below 31, after surging to 60 last week. Looking back at 2008 (GFC) and 2020 (COVID), the only two times the VIX moved >60, stocks had already bottomed by the time the VIX fell below 31.  And even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested uncertainty has “peaked.”

• The VIX dropping below 50 after previously breaching that level is historically a tactical “buy” signal, and recent price action reinforces this setup for equities.
• Over the past week, market developments have pointed to a continued de-escalation theme, particularly with President Donald Trump saying that he is looking to help U.S. auto companies as they adjust their supply chains and need time.
  – This creates “positive option” value for tariffs to be less punitive and ultimately an upside case for U.S. corporations.
  – Further bolstering the case, when more stakeholders—from business leaders like Jamie Dimon to the auto industry—join the negotiation table, it’s going to be a better deal for U.S. companies.
• Bessent also added clarity, emphasizing that current trade talks are focused on strong allies such as the U.K., Australia, South Korea, India, and Japan.
  – That list represents a reliable blueprint for mutually beneficial deals, further emboldening the path of de-escalation.
  – Importantly, Friday’s twin developments—the Fed’s reminder of its liquidity backstop and the tariff delays—contributed to this path of de-escalation.
• Meanwhile, the 12-month inflation expectations from the New York Fed showed a concerning jump to 3.6% .
  – The increase was most pronounced among higher-income earners (>$100K), those under 40, and college-educated consumers.
  – This underscores how tariffs are influencing inflation psychology—particularly among demographics most attuned to forward-looking economic trends. These shifts in sentiment are not market-friendly.
• Looking ahead, Wednesday is a loaded macro day:
  – 4/14 Mon 11:00 AM ET: Mar NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp  
  – 4/15 Tue 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey -12.5e
  – 4/16 Wed: April Super Granny Market Update
  – 4/16 Wed 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales 1.4%e
  – 4/16 Wed 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index 38e
  – 4/16 Wed 1:30 PM ET: Powell Speaks to Economic Club of Chicago
  – 4/16 Wed 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows  
  – 4/17 Thu 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook 3.0e
  – 4/17 Thu 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
  – 4/18 Fri: Good Friday (Market Holiday)
• Arguably the most important signal today came from Bessent, who indicated that the VIX has likely peaked.
  – That statement is notable considering the VIX hit 60 just one week ago, April 7, but has since plunged to 31.
  – Historical data suggests that it is wise to buy stocks when the VIX is above 50, especially when it makes a move back below that level.
• It has been higher than the 50 level only two other times.
  – First was during the GFC in 2008, when the VIX didn’t fall below 37.56 until Jan. 9—three months after peaking near 60—and it didn’t fall below 31 until May 9, well after the equity lows were in.
  – Second was during the Covid-19 crash when the VIX hit 60 on March 9, 2020, fell below 37.56 on March 24, and didn’t drop below 31 until late April—again, closely marking the market bottom
• Fast forward to now, at a VIX of 60, implied daily volatility was 3.78%. By Friday, April 11, the VIX had already dropped to 37.56, implying daily moves of 2.37%, as shown in the table below:
  Vix Level   ÷ √252  = +/-% Implied S&P 500 1D
  – 60                 15.87                   3.78%
  – 37.56            15.87                   2.37%
  – 32                 15.87                   2.02%
  – 20                 15.87                   1.26%
  – 15                 15.87                   0.94%
  – As of Monday’s close, the VIX stands at 31, meaning markets are now pricing in a more manageable 1.95% daily volatility.
• In both historical instances, the VIX making these downside milestones coincided with the end of major equity drawdowns. If the VIX has peaked, we’ve already made our lows, so it makes sense to buy stocks.
• We believe those that are using a tactical strategy should deploy a more long-term investing strategy. We continue to expect a move to 5,500 by the S&P 500 is still doable. Whether this is a V-shaped or W-shaped recovery remains unclear, but either pattern leaves room for significant upside. There is a chance that the policy will flip.

Bottom Line: A VIX break below 50 is a tactical “buy” signal—suggesting the lows may be in and stocks could be entering a new leg higher.

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45 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 2/18. Full stock list here -> Click here

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Key incoming data April:

• 4/1 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 4/1 10:00 AM ET: Feb JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 4/2 10:00 AM ET: Feb F Durable Goods Orders MoM Tame
• 4/3 8:30 AM ET: Feb Trade Balance Tame
• 4/3 9:45 AM ET: Mar F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 4/3 10:00 AM ET: Mar ISM Services PMI Tame
• 4/4 8:30 AM ET: Mar Non-farm Payrolls Hot
• 4/7 9:00 AM ET: Mar F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 4/8 6:00 AM ET: Mar Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 4/9 2:00 PM ET: Mar FOMC Meeting Minutes Mixed
• 4/10 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core CPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 8:30 AM ET: Mar Core PPI MoM Tame
• 4/11 10:00 AM ET: Apr P U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp Hot
• 4/14 11:00 AM ET: Mar NYFed 1yr Inf Exp Mixed
• 4/15 8:30 AM ET: Apr Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 4/16 8:30 AM ET: Mar Retail Sales
• 4/16 10:00 AM ET: Apr NAHB Housing Market Index
• 4/16 4:00 PM ET: Feb Net TIC Flows
• 4/17 8:30 AM ET: Apr Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 4/17 9:00 AM ET: Apr M Manheim Used Vehicle Index
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Services PMI
• 4/23 9:45 AM ET: Apr P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 4/23 10:00 AM ET: Mar New Home Sales
• 4/23 2:00 PM ET: Apr Fed Releases Beige Book
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 4/24 8:30 AM ET: Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
• 4/24 10:00 AM ET: Mar Existing Home Sales
• 4/25 10:00 AM ET: Apr F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 4/28 10:30 AM ET: Apr Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
• 4/29 9:00 AM ET: Feb S&P CS home price 20-City MoM
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Apr Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• 4/29 10:00 AM ET: Mar JOLTS Job Openings
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q A GDP QoQ
• 4/30 8:30 AM ET: 1Q ECI QoQ
• 4/30 10:00 AM ET: Mar Core PCE MoM

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: