Impressive breadth reading, but price requires a bit more strength Array ( [cookie] => aa65d6-b7af93-e0d152-05aadd-7342d3 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 566581 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
Note: I’ll be on CNBC Thursday morning at 8 am. EST discussing technical market thoughts.
SPX’s technical trend and momentum have remained negative since early December 2024, but the post-CPI bounce in Equities has brought the price to near-important resistance, which will provide some clues/confirmation of a bearish trend over the next 3-4 days as to whether this bounce is sustainable. While the better-than-expected core CPI reading caused yields to plunge, there will need to be more evidence of Treasury strength to have confidence in a larger rally. The worries at this point solely revolve around the lack of bullish confirmation in price and momentum coupled with the very low level of market breadth. Overall, I like being in the market for a rally into mid-February. However, given a number of unconfirmed technical factors, one still can’t rule out some backing and filling in next week, which would provide an even better risk/reward opportunity for investors.
Yesterday I discussed that despite the 10 key reasons why SPX was getting ready to rally, it was difficult having conviction that a low was in place. I still feel this is the case, but am encouraged about the breadth in Wednesday’s session along with the drop in Treasury yields.
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