October Top Stock Ideas and Super SMID Granny Market Update

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VIDEO: With 2024 Presidential election only 6 days away, we caution against STDS or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03).

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• Updating list of Top Stock Ideas
• Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
• Chartbook linked below

To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.

Macro Commentary

With the 2024 Presidential Election only 6 days away, please avoid getting STDS, or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President.  But there are significant sectoral implications.  Tune into our webinar Wed 10/30 as we cover these topics as well as the status of the battleground states

Investment Ideas: Top large-cap stock picks + Super SMID Grannies

As we are rebranding our monthly webinar, we are introducing a new section of top stock ideas:

• The top large-cap stock ideas are based on a universe of 46 large-cap stocks that are widely held by investors and market cap >$40b

• The new top stock ideas follow the similar methodologies we use to identify super SMID granny ideas
• Essentially, we aim to identify the most timely stock ideas by cross referencing the trend analyses, quantamental works and technical studies.
• In more detail, the framework is composed of a criteria of 4 factors to narrow down to tactical buys:
  – fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
  – momentum rating based weighted average performances of recent period
  – technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
  – Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook
• Our top 5 Stock Ideas for October 2024:
  – NVIDIA Corp (NVDA -1.61% ) <– carry over
  – Meta Platforms Inc (META -2.22% ) <– carry over
  – Uber Technologies Inc (UBER 0.87% ) <– carry over
  – Amazon.com Inc (AMZN 0.75% )
  – Tesla Inc (TSLA -0.89% ) <– carry over

• The bottom 5 stock ideas (to avoid) are:
  – Boeing Co/The (BA 0.86% ) <– carry over
  – Ford Motor Co (F 0.58% ) <– carry over
  – NIKE Inc (NKE -2.27% ) <– carry over
  – Pfizer Inc (PFE 0.07% ) <– carry over
  – Intel Corp (INTC -2.66% ) <– carry over

SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID granny shot portfolio strategy as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.

• We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
• The SMID Grannies shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,492 small and mid-cap stocks.
• From the SMID granny shots portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID granny shots portfolio.

• We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
  – AppLovin Corp (APP -0.87% ) <– carry over
  – Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR -5.05% ) <– carry over
  – MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR -7.59% )
  – TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX -4.05% )
  – MannKind Corp (MNKD 2.77% )
• The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
  – Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT 2.16% ) <– carry over
  – Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR -4.47% ) <– carry over
  – Veeco Instruments Inc (VECO -0.03% ) <– carry over
  – Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC 7.00% ) <– carry over
  – Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS -2.11% )

Please see Mark’s technical note tonight for commentary on the Top 5 Stock Ideas and 5 Super SMID Grannies.

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42 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 7/16. Full stock list here -> Click here

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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

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Key incoming data October:

• 10/1 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 10/1 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 10/1 10:00 AM ET: Aug JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 10/3 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 10/3 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Services PMI Mixed
• 10/3 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 10/4 8:30 AM ET: Sep Non-Farm Payrolls Hot
• 10/7 9:00 AM ET: Aug F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 10/8 6:00 AM ET: Sep Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
• 10/8 8:30 AM ET: Aug Trade Balance Tame
• 10/9 2:00 PM ET: Sep 18 FOMC Meeting Minutes Dovish
• 10/10 8:30 AM ET: Sep CPI Hot
• 10/11 8:30 AM ET: Sep PPI Tame
• 10/11 10:00 AM ET: Oct P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 10/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 10/15 11:00 AM ET: Sep NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
• 10/17 8:30 AM ET: Sep Retail Sales Data Tame
• 10/17 8:30 AM ET: Oct Philly Fed Business Outlook Tame
• 10/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 10/17 10:00 AM ET: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/17 4:00 PM ET: Aug Net TIC Flows Tame
• 10/23 10:00 AM ET: Sep Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/23 2:00 PM ET: Oct Fed Releases Beige Book Dovish
• 10/24 8:30 AM ET: Sep Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Tame
• 10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Services PMI Tame
• 10/24 10:00 AM ET: Sep New Home Sales Tame
• 10/25 10:00 AM ET: Oct F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 10/25 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods Orders Tame
• 10/28 10:30 AM ET: Oct Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey Tame
• 10/29 9:00 AM ET: Aug S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
• 10/29 10:00 AM ET: Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 10/29 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 10/30 8:30 AM ET: 3Q A 2024 GDP
• 10/30 10:00 AM ET: 3Q24 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Press Conference
• 10/31 8:30 AM ET: Sep PCE Deflator
• 10/31 8:30 AM ET: 3Q Employment Cost Index

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: