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VIDEO: With 2024 Presidential election only 6 days away, we caution against STDS or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President
Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03).
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- Updating list of Top Stock Ideas
- Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
- Chartbook linked below
To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.
Macro Commentary
With the 2024 Presidential Election only 6 days away, please avoid getting STDS, or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President. But there are significant sectoral implications. Tune into our webinar Wed 10/30 as we cover these topics as well as the status of the battleground states
Investment Ideas: Top large-cap stock picks + Super SMID Grannies
As we are rebranding our monthly webinar, we are introducing a new section of top stock ideas:
- The top large-cap stock ideas are based on a universe of 46 large-cap stocks that are widely held by investors and market cap >$40b
- The new top stock ideas follow the similar methodologies we use to identify super SMID granny ideas
- Essentially, we aim to identify the most timely stock ideas by cross referencing the trend analyses, quantamental works and technical studies.
- In more detail, the framework is composed of a criteria of 4 factors to narrow down to tactical buys:
– fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
– momentum rating based weighted average performances of recent period
– technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
– Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook - Our top 5 Stock Ideas for October 2024:
– NVIDIA Corp (NVDA -1.61% ) <– carry over
– Meta Platforms Inc (META -2.22% ) <– carry over
– Uber Technologies Inc (UBER 0.87% ) <– carry over
– Amazon.com Inc (AMZN 0.75% )
– Tesla Inc (TSLA -0.89% ) <– carry over
- The bottom 5 stock ideas (to avoid) are:
– Boeing Co/The (BA 0.86% ) <– carry over
– Ford Motor Co (F 0.58% ) <– carry over
– NIKE Inc (NKE -2.27% ) <– carry over
– Pfizer Inc (PFE 0.07% ) <– carry over
– Intel Corp (INTC -2.66% ) <– carry over
SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper
Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID granny shot portfolio strategy as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.
- We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
- The SMID Grannies shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,492 small and mid-cap stocks.
- From the SMID granny shots portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID granny shots portfolio.
- We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
– AppLovin Corp (APP -0.87% ) <– carry over
– Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR -5.05% ) <– carry over
– MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR -7.59% )
– TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX -4.05% )
– MannKind Corp (MNKD 2.77% ) - The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
– Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT 2.16% ) <– carry over
– Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR -4.47% ) <– carry over
– Veeco Instruments Inc (VECO -0.03% ) <– carry over
– Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC 7.00% ) <– carry over
– Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS -2.11% )
Please see Mark’s technical note tonight for commentary on the Top 5 Stock Ideas and 5 Super SMID Grannies.
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42 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 7/16. Full stock list here -> Click here
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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.
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Key incoming data October:
10/1 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame10/1 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Manufacturing PMITame10/1 10:00 AM ET: Aug JOLTS Job OpeningsTame10/3 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Services PMITame10/3 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Services PMIMixed10/3 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods OrdersTame10/4 8:30 AM ET: Sep Non-Farm PayrollsHot10/7 9:00 AM ET: Aug F Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame10/8 6:00 AM ET: Sep Small Business Optimism SurveyTame10/8 8:30 AM ET: Aug Trade BalanceTame10/9 2:00 PM ET: Sep 18 FOMC Meeting MinutesDovish10/10 8:30 AM ET: Sep CPIHot10/11 8:30 AM ET: Sep PPITame10/11 10:00 AM ET: Oct P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame10/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Empire Manufacturing SurveyTame10/15 11:00 AM ET: Sep NY Fed 1yr Inf ExpTame10/17 8:30 AM ET: Sep Retail Sales DataTame10/17 8:30 AM ET: Oct Philly Fed Business OutlookTame10/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle IndexTame10/17 10:00 AM ET: Oct NAHB Housing Market IndexTame10/17 4:00 PM ET: Aug Net TIC FlowsTame10/23 10:00 AM ET: Sep Existing Home SalesTame10/23 2:00 PM ET: Oct Fed Releases Beige BookDovish10/24 8:30 AM ET: Sep Chicago Fed Nat Activity IndexTame10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Manufacturing PMITame10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Services PMITame10/24 10:00 AM ET: Sep New Home SalesTame10/25 10:00 AM ET: Oct F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation ExpectationTame10/25 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods OrdersTame10/28 10:30 AM ET: Oct Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity SurveyTame10/29 9:00 AM ET: Aug S&P CoreLogic CS home priceMixed10/29 10:00 AM ET: Oct Conference Board Consumer ConfidenceTame10/29 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job OpeningsTame- 10/30 8:30 AM ET: 3Q A 2024 GDP
- 10/30 10:00 AM ET: 3Q24 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Press Conference
- 10/31 8:30 AM ET: Sep PCE Deflator
- 10/31 8:30 AM ET: 3Q Employment Cost Index
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:
Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023: