Tue, October 29, 2024 | 8:43PM ET

October Top Stock Ideas and Super SMID Granny Market Update

Name: FS Insight
Price range: $$$

Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Head of Research

October Top Stock Ideas and Super SMID Granny Market Update

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VIDEO: With 2024 Presidential election only 6 days away, we caution against STDS or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:03).

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Updating list of Top Stock Ideas
Updating 5 Super and 5 Sleeper SMID Grannies
Chartbook linked below

To download the slide deck for our Market Update Webinar, please click HERE.

Macro Commentary

With the 2024 Presidential Election only 6 days away, please avoid getting STDS, or “Stock Market Derangement Syndrome” as we believe markets should fare well under either future President. But there are significant sectoral implications. Tune into our webinar Wed 10/30 as we cover these topics as well as the status of the battleground states

Investment Ideas: Top large-cap stock picks + Super SMID Grannies

As we are rebranding our monthly webinar, we are introducing a new section of top stock ideas:

The top large-cap stock ideas are based on a universe of 46 large-cap stocks that are widely held by investors and market cap >$40b

The new top stock ideas follow the similar methodologies we use to identify super SMID granny ideas
Essentially, we aim to identify the most timely stock ideas by cross referencing the trend analyses, quantamental works and technical studies.
In more detail, the framework is composed of a criteria of 4 factors to narrow down to tactical buys:
– fundamentals using DQM model managed by “tireless Ken”
– momentum rating based weighted average performances of recent period
– technical strength measured by Price >20 DMA, 20 DMA vs 200 DMA and combos
– Mark Newton’s judgement on technical outlook
Our top 5 Stock Ideas for October 2024:
– NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) <– carry over
– Meta Platforms Inc (META) <– carry over
– Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) <– carry over
– Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)
– Tesla Inc (TSLA) <– carry over

The bottom 5 stock ideas (to avoid) are:
– Boeing Co/The (BA) <– carry over
– Ford Motor Co (F) <– carry over
– NIKE Inc (NKE) <– carry over
– Pfizer Inc (PFE) <– carry over
– Intel Corp (INTC) <– carry over

SUPER SMID GRANNIES: 5 Super and 5 Sleeper

Last December, we upgraded Small-caps to be the #1 recommendation in our 2024 year-ahead outlook. We also created the SMID granny shot portfolio strategy as many of our clients asked us for our Top SMID stock picks.

We believe the SMID Grannies could benefit from the multiple themes and secular tailwinds
The SMID Grannies shots were selected from a universe consisting of 2,492 small and mid-cap stocks.
From the SMID granny shots portfolio, we employed the same framework mentioned above to identify the 5 most timely ideas and 5 least timely ideas within the SMID granny shots portfolio.

We have 5 tactical buys aka “Super SMID Grannies”
– AppLovin Corp (APP) <– carry over
– Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) <– carry over
– MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR)
– TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX)
– MannKind Corp (MNKD)
The bottom 5 “Sleeper SMID Grannies” are:
– Ultra Clean Holdings Inc (UCTT) <– carry over
– Amkor Technology Inc (AMKR) <– carry over
– Veeco Instruments Inc (VECO) <– carry over
– Blueprint Medicines Corp (BPMC) <– carry over
– Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS)

Please see Mark’s technical note tonight for commentary on the Top 5 Stock Ideas and 5 Super SMID Grannies.

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42 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 7/16. Full stock list here -> Click here

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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

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Key incoming data October:

~~10/1 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~10/1 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~10/1 10:00 AM ET: Aug JOLTS Job Openings~~ Tame
~~10/3 9:45 AM ET: Sep F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~10/3 10:00 AM ET: Sep ISM Services PMI~~ Mixed
~~10/3 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods Orders~~ Tame
~~10/4 8:30 AM ET: Sep Non-Farm Payrolls~~ Hot
~~10/7 9:00 AM ET: Aug F Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Tame
~~10/8 6:00 AM ET: Sep Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~10/8 8:30 AM ET: Aug Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~10/9 2:00 PM ET: Sep 18 FOMC Meeting Minutes~~ Dovish
~~10/10 8:30 AM ET: Sep CPI~~ Hot
~~10/11 8:30 AM ET: Sep PPI~~ Tame
~~10/11 10:00 AM ET: Oct P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation~~ Tame
~~10/15 8:30 AM ET: Oct Empire Manufacturing Survey~~ Tame
~~10/15 11:00 AM ET: Sep NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~10/17 8:30 AM ET: Sep Retail Sales Data~~ Tame
~~10/17 8:30 AM ET: Oct Philly Fed Business Outlook~~ Tame
~~10/17 9:00 AM ET: Sep M Manheim Used Vehicle Index~~ Tame
~~10/17 10:00 AM ET: Oct NAHB Housing Market Index~~ Tame
~~10/17 4:00 PM ET: Aug Net TIC Flows~~ Tame
~~10/23 10:00 AM ET: Sep Existing Home Sales~~ Tame
~~10/23 2:00 PM ET: Oct Fed Releases Beige Book~~ Dovish
~~10/24 8:30 AM ET: Sep Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index~~ Tame
~~10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~10/24 9:45 AM ET: Oct P S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~10/24 10:00 AM ET: Sep New Home Sales~~ Tame
~~10/25 10:00 AM ET: Oct F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation~~ Tame
~~10/25 10:00 AM ET: Aug F Durable Goods Orders~~ Tame
~~10/28 10:30 AM ET: Oct Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey~~ Tame
~~10/29 9:00 AM ET: Aug S&P CoreLogic CS home price~~ Mixed
~~10/29 10:00 AM ET: Oct Conference Board Consumer Confidence~~ Tame
~~10/29 10:00 AM ET: Sep JOLTS Job Openings~~ Tame
10/30 8:30 AM ET: 3Q A 2024 GDP
10/30 10:00 AM ET: 3Q24 Treasury Quarterly Refunding Press Conference
10/31 8:30 AM ET: Sep PCE Deflator
10/31 8:30 AM ET: 3Q Employment Cost Index

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

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Tom Lee, CFA, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships. Neither I, nor a member of my household is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is/are the subject of this research report. There is a possibility that we will from time to time have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives, if any, referred to in this research.

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