As the summer solstice approaches and 2019 closes in on the halfway mark, investors have already witnessed two opposing market regimes: equity gains reminiscent of the mid-90s (double-digit gains January to May) and a “tower of terror” decline (May to early June).

Multiple factors contributed to the roughly 8% decline from May highs to the early June lows,. Among them was a loss of visibility (hence, higher risk premia) as trade tensions escalated during a period in which the market was overbought (on many measures). Trade tensions continue to linger, and it is apparent that investors have become overly negative. That’s evident in several measures discussed below.

Coupled with what, in my view, remain resilient U.S. fundamentals and a supportive Federal Reserve, there is a backdrop for equity markets to build on gains into year end.

Tariff wars are scary, but investors are overstating the impact on the U.S. consumer, given volatility in consumer price index and the likelihood of substitution. The S&P 500 lost ~$2 trillion—that’s right $2 trillion—in market capitalization over the past 6 weeks on the heels of $64 billion tariff. That shows the tariff war hurt the S&P 500 index more than it hurt China (30 times the impact on equity vs China).

While ...

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