Videos
- Comments
- Comments
Election and Rates Cited as Key Risks Stunting New Order Growth, Prediction Markets / Polling Shift Toward Trump
In today's video, we explore the risk-off move in crypto, analyze what the ISM Manufacturing report suggests about market risks in the coming months, highlight an under-discussed shift in polling odds, and review key data points this week that could shift market expectations from 'hard-landing' back to 'soft-landing' pricing. https://vimeo....
- Crypto Videos
Jackson Hole Eliminates “Plane Climbing” Scenario for Crypto, Historical Data Suggests Volumes Bottom This Week
In this week’s video, we discuss the recent lack of spot market volumes and how historical data indicates that volumes are likely to bottom out this week. We also explore why the outcome of Jackson Hole significantly reduces the likelihood of a cyclical downturn for crypto in the near term....
Crypto - Comments
Gov't Selling Likely Over, AI/HPC Miners Offer Favorable Risk/Reward
In today's video, we explain why the recent order book imbalance appears to have cleared, discuss the potential for a “Trump Premium” to be priced...
Crypto - Comments
BTC Performance During US Market Hours Suggests Govt Selling as a Key Factor in Lack of Upside, Keep an Eye on Prediction Markets
Macro conditions have been ideal for a rally, yet BTC has struggled to break out, underperforming equities. We suspect government sales of 10k seized BTC...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Fed Chair remarks at Jackson Hole likely to solidify that 8/5 was summer low.
VIDEO: The dread post the July FOMC turned into "uncertainty" last week as markets recovered. We believe Jackson Hole will compel many skeptical investors into...
- Comments
Caution in the Near-term Still Warranted, Q4 Setup Remains Compelling (Core Strategy Rebalance)
In today's video, we discuss the increasing near-term risks as demonstrated by the disconnect between real yields and bitcoin, and by a rising MOVE index. We also talk about why we remain optimistic heading into Q4. Last but not least, we discuss the latest Core Strategy rebalance. https://vimeo. com/1006786272/753d36caf5? share=copy...
Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: We are watching 3 things this week. At top of list is Middle East conflict.
VIDEO: There are 3 things we are watching closely this week. At the top of the list is a potential imminent attack by Iran on...
Crypto - Comments
More Promising Data This Week Suggests Rally Into CPI, SOL and HNT Show Continued Strength
This week, the market benefited from a dovish signal from the BOJ and stronger-than-expected jobless claims data. Sentiment has shifted from recession fears to a...
Crypto - Comments
Monday Showed Some Encouraging Data, Worth Keeping Some Dry Powder on Hand for Next Couple Weeks
In today's video we discuss some encouraging data that suggests a near term bottom, the risks that remain in the market, things we are going...
Crypto - Comments
Shifting Election Odds Erases “Trump Premium,” but it Remains Difficult to Be Bearish Amid Falling Rates and Dollar
In today's video, we discuss how yesterday's price action erased the "Trump Premium" and explore how we should consider the impact of election odds on...