Tue, July 11, 2023 | 9:09PM ET

VIDEO: Macro Minute: The last two "meaningful" CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be "low end" of a potential rally.

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Tom Lee, CFA ^AC

Head of Research

VIDEO: Macro Minute: The last two meaningful CPI positive surprises (Oct 2022 and Feb 2023) saw +4%-5% 5D rally = 180 to 225 points today. Thus, 100 point gain could be low end of a potential rally.

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We discuss that of the last 8 CPI reports, markets had a positive reaction 6 of 8 times. The two “surprises” saw 4%-5% rallies, or +180-225 points. Thus, our 100 points rally tactical call might be on the low side. Is the Fed funds of 5.5% “higher for longer” if Core CPI is 3% by Dec 2024? We don’t think so.

Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (duration: 4:10).

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