On a tight vote of 51 to 49 on Saturday the Senate narrowly approved the parliamentary move to approve the motion that starts debate on the Big, Beautiful Bill Act in the Senate. Two Republicans, NC Tom Tillis and KY Rand Paul, joined all 47 Democrats and voted NO.
But this is not a done deal. From my Congressional aide experience the vote to allow debate to begin on a bill is not synonymous with voting YES on the final bill. On several occasions when representing my boss in Congress I would tell leadership or the White House that the Member would vote to allow the bill to start debate but still retained the option to vote against final passage. It is very tough to tell a President of your party, or the elected party leadership that your boss is not even going to allow a bill to be debated on the floor of the House or Senate. It is relatively easy to take the position that out of loyalty the Member will vote to start debate, but may still vote against the bill.
It was interesting that some of the more moderate Republican senators such as Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski both have real reservations about the bill but voted YES on the motion to proceed. Similarly, on the right, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Minnesota Sen. Ron Johnson voted for the motion to proceed even though they have both been very public that they may oppose the bill if there isn’t more deficit reduction added.
President Trump and Senate Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) got their votes to proceed, but final passage is not a “done deal.” With a vote of 51 to 49 Republicans can only afford to lose one more vote (which would enable Vice President JD Vance to vote and break the tie), if the bill is to pass.
On to the House
If the Senate does approve the BBB on Tuesday or Wednesday, the House will have a big decision to make – do they pass the Senate bill with all its changes, or, to keep their one vote majority, make changes to the bill and send it back to the Senate? If Congress is to have any hope of meeting the President’s July 4 deadline, the House will need to pass the Senate bill. However, the House vote was 215 Yes to 214 No, leaving no room for error by the Speaker or White House. Several of the most conservative House Republicans have expressed concern with the Senate version of the bill. After backing down from their concerns with the bill and voting for it when the House passed the BBB will these Republican House Members tell the President NO the next time around and vote against the bill, which is central to the first year of his second term?
Deadline
While the President has set a deadline of July 4, that is not a hard date as the real deadline is the day when the U.S. government hits the debt ceiling and loses the ability to pay debt. Last week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reported that using the extraordinary procedures that the Department regularly uses involving a debt-default deadline, that they can continue funding government operations until July 24, but he failed to say that the date was the actual “X” date when there could be a U.S. government default.
Previously the Secretary had talked about a mid-August date for the X date, but he recognizes that, with the traditional Congressional August break, Congress can’t leave town at the end of July without acting on the debt.
The House BBB bill increased the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. The Senate bill, attempting to ensure that Republicans do not need to increase the ceiling in an election year, increases the ceiling by $5 trillion. Republican Senator Rand Paul used the debt ceiling increase as his reason for voting No on the first parliamentary step on the bill, and there may be conservative House Republicans who similarly can’t support the $5 trillion increase.
Bottom Line
This looks to be shaping up as a long tough week with lots of headline risk as Congress works to pass the BBB by Friday. Working in favor of passage is the role President Trump has taken in the Republican Party as the ultimate deal closer.