Government Shutdown Looms, Trump Speech Tuesday

L . Thomas Block

This past week, the House voted 217Y to 215N to pass their version of the Budget Resolution. That is the first step in the Budget Reconciliation process, the legislative tool Republicans plan to use to pass President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities. However, there is a big gap between the House all-in-one-bill approach and the Senate’s two bills. In the coming days, the House and Senate Republicans, working with the White House, will need to decide on a common strategy.

While the leadership irons out a common strategy on reconciliation, their attention must also turn to the fast-approaching government shutdown deadline of March 14. Congress needs to pass a budget for the current fiscal year that began Oct. 1. The government has stayed open as Congress has passed two Continuing Resolutions (CR) that maintained government spending at current levels. However, many of the most conservative Republicans oppose the idea of current spending levels and aren’t supportive of another CR. Some Republican leaders want to pass a CR that completes the current fiscal year to allow work on FY 2026 that begins this coming Oct. 1.

The issue that is overhanging the process is DOGE and the budget cuts Elon Musk and his team have already initiated. With the narrow margin in the House, and the threat of a Democratic-led filibuster in the Senate, any CR is likely going to need Democratic support. The President and Congressional Republicans don’t want to maintain current spending levels across the board as they want to incorporate DOGE cuts, but Democrats are unwilling to rollover and accept these cuts they view as illegal.

Keeping the government open past the March 14 deadline is looking more and more precarious and the discussion is going to create headline risk over the next two weeks.

Next Tuesday, Trump will address a joint session of Congress at 8:00 pm. With issues ranging from the government shutdown to tariffs to global affairs, it could be a very impactful address.

Disclosures (show)