Under the Constitution, the first order of business for a new Congress is to elect a House Speaker. After the 2024 elections and with the resignation of Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, the Republican majority was cut to only a two-vote margin.
After Election Day, the House partisan count was 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. However, after his failed effort to win Senate support to become President Trump’s Attorney General, Gaetz resigned from Congress, leaving House Republicans with only 219 Members. The Speaker is chosen by a majority of Members present and voting. Assuming all elected Members are in DC today, that means 218 votes are required to become Speaker. One Republican, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, has already announced that he won’t support Mike Johnson’s bid to return as Speaker, which means that Johnson cannot lose even one more vote from his own party, or he will fall short of the 218-magic number.
Some news outlets are reporting that six to 10 House Republicans have been hesitant to give their public support to Mike Johnson. As leader of the MAGA movement, President-elect Donald Trump may be the most powerful party leader in many years. Last Wednesday, Trump publicly supported Speaker Johnson’s bid for a second term as House Speaker.
Yet Trump’s support does not guarantee success for Johnson. At the end of 2024, 38 House Republicans voted against a Trump-endorsed plan to pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) that included an increase in the national debt ceiling. Even when the debt ceiling was stricken, the CR required to keep the government open still had 34 NO Republican votes and only passed thanks to the votes of House Democrats.
In politics there is an old adage that you can’t beat somebody with nobody and at this time, there isn’t any known alternative to Mike Johnson. Democrats will all vote for their Leader, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, putting all the pressure on Republicans to find 218 votes for the Speaker of the 119th Congress.
Two years ago, it took four days and 15 attempts for Kevin McCarthy to get the votes needed to be elected Speaker; he then lost the position nine months later. However, in 2023 Republicans didn’t have their leader sitting in the White House. From my days as a Capitol Hill aide, I know first-hand how powerful a call from the President can be, and this could be the first big test of the Trump Administration.
