Election Nears, Hurricanes and Global Risks

The election is now less than a month away, and polls continue to show a very close race.  As I have written before, polling is not as accurate as it was in the past, but the polls do still show trends. The trend is clearly a very close race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris.  At this point it appears that the candidates will not have a second face-to-face debate.

Election Day will also see all 435 seats in the House up for election and 34 of the 100 Senate seats to be decided. 

The current line up in the Senate is 51D to 49R, but Republicans are assured of picking up the West Virginia seat to be vacated with the retirement of Democrat Joe Manchin. That would make Election Day margin 50/50.  With many close races, it appears Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate.

It is tougher to get a clear picture of the House, with its 435 separate races. The Republicans have only a four-seat majority, so the House outcome is too close to call.  Presidential coattails may make a difference.

Hurricanes and Global Risks

Election news in recent days has been diverted as the nation focuses on the two major hurricanes that have hit Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia.  With so many compelling stories of huge losses, candidates have found it difficult to break through and get their messages out to voters. 

Additionally, the world continues to focus on the Middle East and the expected Israeli response to the Iranian ballistic missile attacks.  This, too, is an external factor taking attention away from the messages of U.S. candidates.

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