Today is the beginning of the Democratic Convention in Chicago; for many it will be their introduction to Vice President Kamala Harris as she officially becomes the Democratic nominee. The convention will also feature the introduction of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as the Party’s Vice Presidential nominee.
The week will begin tonight with a salute and speech by President Biden. The night is being billed as the passing of the torch, and if the Democrats have done their work, it should make good television. The week will continue with keynote speeches by the Party’s 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton and the previous Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. On Wednesday night Governor Walz will be in the spotlight to accept his nomination and Thursday the convention will culminate with the acceptance speech of Vice President Harris.
The speech that Harris gives on Thursday will likely be the largest audience she will have the entire campaign, except for the debates. For many undecided and less involved voters it will be their introduction to her candidacy. The Vice President has moved the election from one where former President Trump had a strong polling lead over President Biden to one where polls show the race too close to call.
One issue that may emerge this week is the threat of large scale demonstration against the Administration by protestors supporting Palestinians in the Middle East. I remember the last time Democrats had a Chicago convention in 1968 when the event was marred by large protests against the war in Vietnam. Many view those protests, and the disruptions they caused, as a factor in the loss of Democratic nominee and sitting Vice President Hubert Humphrey to the Republican candidate Richard Nixon.
The Republican Convention was generally given high marks for energizing the Republican base. This week will tell the tale for Democrats.
Fed FOMC minutes
On Wednesday at 2:00pm the Fed will release the minutes from the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting which was held on July 30/31. At the Chair’s July 31 press conference, he said that there had been some support expressed at the meeting for a July cut, but in the end the Committee had a unanimous vote to keep rates the same. It should be interesting to see how the minutes reflect the difference of opinions that were expressed prior to the vote.
The minutes may give some hints as to the split in the Committee and insights as the central bank prepares for the mid-September meeting.
Jackson Hole speech
On Friday Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole meeting that attracts central bankers from around the world. It has become traditional for the Fed Chair to address the gathering. This year’s speech could take on great importance as markets look for clues as to the Fed’s next move in September.
At his July 31 press conference Chair Powell made clear, while addressing the differences that were expressed at the July FOMC meeting, that a cut in September “was on the table.” Recent data has heightened the consensus that a cut in September will happen, and much of the talk in recent days has been whether the action would be a 25bps or 50bps cut. If the Chair wants to send a signal on his thinking, the speech on Friday will be an opportunity to talk to both the Committee Members and markets.