Ukraine, Israel Aid Are Center Stage in DC

Key Takeaways
  • Senate Republicans reverse course on linking immigration to aid to Israel and Ukraine, responding to signals from former President Trump.
  • The "Supplemental-only" Senate bill advanced after a bipartisan majority voted to limit debate on it.
  • If the Senate bill passes, House Speaker Johnson will likely need to work with Democrats if he wants it to pass.

For weeks, Republicans insisted that any Supplemental Spending Bill with aid for Ukraine and Israel had to have border/immigration provisions. Suddenly with encouragement from former President Trump, the signals changed, and the border/immigration compromise was dropped. The Senate then returned to a “clean” supplemental that just contains foreign military and humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and the Asia/Pacific region. 

To move the Supplemental-only bill through his chamber, Senate Leader Schumer forced a procedural vote earlier this week to move forward with the $95B legislation, limiting debate with a cloture petition.  The vote required 60 YES votes, and the final tally was 67Y and 32N.  In the end, 17 Republicans joined Democrats and voted to move forward with the legislation.  The Senate had been scheduled to leave DC today for a two-week Presidents’ Day break, but Schumer is committed to moving forward with the Supplemental Bill.  It appears there are enough votes in the Senate to pass the legislation.

If the Senate passes the bill, House Speaker Johnson will again find himself in a challenging situation, one in which many of his most conservative members oppose the Supplemental Spending Bill, but a majority of the House supports money for Ukraine and Israel.  After losing two votes this past week – failing to impeach HSD Secretary Mayorkas by one vote and failing to get a two-thirds supermajority on his Israel-only aid bill, he will likely next have to deal with a Senate-passed Supplemental.

Speaker Johnson knows that one of the complaints against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was that he did deals with the Democrats, but getting an aid bill for Ukraine and Israel over the finish line is likely to require a bipartisan vote.  That means a tough few days ahead for the Speaker.

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