Florida Governor Ron DeSantis dropped a political bombshell when he suspended his race for the Republican Presidential nomination on the eve of the New Hampshire primary. DeSantis saw the handwriting on the wall with polls showing him at single digits in NH, and no sense that any of the Super Tuesday races were going his way. The Governor’s decision to back President Trump is probably the best indicator of where the race is headed.
After last week’s Iowa caucuses, voters in New Hampshire cast the first votes in a primary election of the 2024 cycle. Primaries are tough to poll as the rules on voter eligibility vary in each state and pollsters have a challenge in determining likely voters. In New Hampshire, independent voters are allowed to choose either the Republican or Democratic primary to cast their vote, and with all the attention on the Republican race the conventional wisdom is that the Republican race will see many independents trying to influence the process.
Last week’s Iowa caucuses saw a low turnout that has been blamed on the weather, but the victory of former President Trump was impressive and helped him lay claim to setting the stage to end the race with a clear victory in NH. Governor DeSantis added to the former President’s momentum with his action this past weekend.
Prior to the DeSantis announcement, polling has shown the race in NH close between former Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Trump. With DeSantis out, it is now clearly a two-person race. While a Haley victory or very close second may slow Trump’s momentum, with DeSantis out and polling in the coming states showing strong support for the former President it is hard to see a pathway for Haley.
The question now is whether or not Haley can stay in until March 5th, when 14 states will cast primary ballots on Super Tuesday. Unlike NH, many of the Super Tuesday states restrict voting to registered members of the respective parties. 36% of the Republican delegates will be selected and while a strong showing in NH may slow Trump’s momentum the final story should be known on Super Tuesday, assuming Haley can stay in that long.
Budget and shutdown
Last week the US again avoided a government shutdown when Congress approved a stopgap Continuing Resolution (CR) that continues government funding until early March. Following the idea of Speaker Mike Johnson, the deadlines were split with some of the smaller budget expiring on March 1 and the large departments such as DoD and HHS having a deadline of March 8.
In the House the Speaker barely got a majority of the majority, a standard that Republicans have set for themselves in recent years. The House vote to keep the government open was 314 to 108, but, importantly, the Republican majority broke down to 107 NO and 108 YES. This shows the tightrope the Speaker must walk as he risks alienating the conservative members of his caucus as he works to keep the government funded.
With nearly half of the Republican majority in the House advocating for large cuts in spending and pushing for policy riders ranging from abortion to government diversity programs, Speaker Johnson will face many of the same challenges that led to the end of McCarthy’s Speakership. Johnson tried to move the ball by proclaiming his long history working with the most conservative members of the Republican caucus, but to actually accomplish anything, and keep the government open, he will need to reach across the aisle and work with Democrats. The Speaker is working with one of the smallest majorities in House history with recent Republican departures and health issues. A mere handful of the conservative Freedom Caucus members can kill any proposal that the Leadership tries to pass on a party line vote.
On the Senate side Leader McConnell believes that for the Republicans to win the majority in the 2024 Elections they can’t be blamed for closing the government, and Speaker Johnson faces tough math to keep his thin majority. Republican strategists know the challenge to hold the 18 House Republican seats that are held in districts that voted for Biden in 2020. The next few weeks will be filled with bumps in the road as the Republican House tries to keep their conservative base on board as they work with Democrats in Congress and the White House to pass the FY 2024 spending bills.
