With the Republican field narrowed to four debaters there seems to have been little movement in the basic storyline that says that former President Trump has a large lead over all his challengers, and that the battle for number two has narrowed to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Governor and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

This was likely the last debate prior to the first votes being cast at the Iowa Caucuses, scheduled for the evening on January 15, 2024.  While polls show the former President with a commanding lead, Iowa caucuses are hard to poll as turnout is so hard to predict. A poll is only as good as the model – in other words, the poll sample must represent the voters.  For example, if the sample of women don’t vote as expected, or the caucus participants turn out to be older than those in the model, the actual election results can deviate significantly from the poll-based forecasts.

At this point, the general consensus is that Trump will win. The real drama is whether Haley or DeSantis go to the head of the line for number two. The latest polls seem to indicate that they are neck-and-neck.


Congress has left for the weekend without making any progress on the two large budget issues: the emergency supplemental and the 2024 fisc...

Unlock this article with a FREE 30-Day Trial!

An FSI Pro, or FSI Macro subscription is required in order to access this content.

*Free trial available only on a monthly plan

Disclosures (show)

Get invaluable analysis of the market and stocks. Cancel at any time. Start Free Trial

Articles Read 2/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

You’ve reached your limit of 2 free monthly articles. Please enter your email to unlock 1 more articles.

Already have an account? Sign In

Don't Miss Out
First Month Free