Congress returns today with the Friday government shutdown deadline fast approaching.
An old saying among Congressional staff is that nothing can get Congress moving faster than the smell of jet fumes from Reagan Airport. Friday is both the budget deadline and the hoped-for Thanksgiving break. By Friday the smell of jet fumes will be getting awfully strong, a great incentive for action.
This past weekend Speaker Johnson introduced a House Republican leadership plan to deal with the shutdown threat. The Speaker’s plan is to have a two tier, so-called ladder, bill where some budgets are extended until January 19, and the tougher department budget are extended until February 2. The Speaker is trying to develop a roadmap to get the Congress away from what has become an annual practice of passing the entire government funding into one so-called Omnibus Spending Bill.
The first deadline date is focused on those areas of spending that are traditionally less controversial: military construction, VA, Ag, Energy-Water, transportation, and HUD. The second early February date will be the big dollar departments such as Defense and HHS. The idea has been panned by Democrats and opposed by some of the most conservative House Republicans who want cuts and policy mandates in every bill they consider even though these items will never get passed by the Senate or signed into law by the President.
The clock is ticking on this untested idea, but in my view, it does make some sense; and if the Speaker can hold his Members in line and push back on deep cuts and conservative policy agenda items it may be a strategy that Democrats and the White House could find acceptable. While some Senate Democrats have called the ladder or two-date CR deadlines gimmicky, that would not be the first time in Congressional history that gimmicky carried the day.
Neither party wants to take the blame for a government shutdown as Turkey Day approaches.
If you’re a policy geek here’s the link to the bill the Speaker introduced on Saturday. https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20231113/FY24CR2FINAL_xml%5B76%5D.pdf
Biden/Xi Summit
On Wednesday during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting Presidents Biden and Xi will sit down for their first face to face meeting in over a year. With wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, economic rivalry between the two economic superpowers, and growing tension around the Pacific Rim centered on Taiwan it is a crucial time in bilateral relations.
While there had been a great deal of speculation around a meeting between the two at APEC the final announcement didn’t occur until last week. Meetings between world leaders such as this requires a great deal of behind-the-scenes staff work, and as the week starts there is a great deal of speculation as to what might be included in the final communique to be issued after the meeting. These are the kind of details that staff has been working on for weeks.
Chinese support for Russia in their war on Ukraine has been a serious issue between the two nations over the past year. President Xi has tried to walk a narrow path between the sides, but most believe there has been a Chinese tilt towards Russia. President Xi would like to enhance the growing economic role that China is playing globally with the role of peacemaker, and the world is well placed for China to find its footing in this arena.
There have been reports that staffs have worked out an agreement on prohibiting AI in nuclear weapons decisions, forcing human decision making with respect to war and peace. There is also speculation that the current freeze in talks between defense officials of US and China may be unfrozen when the two leaders meet.
However, the area of concern for both nations is trade, and it will be tough for both sides. As President Biden has kept in place many of the sanctions imposed by former President Trump, President Xi would like to see some breakthrough on trade as he deals with the economic downturn China has been experiencing.
The bottom line is that whenever these two leaders meet, it has the potential to make market-moving news.