Republican Debate: Wednesday is the third Republican Presidential debate and again former President Donald Trump will miss the event. As I have written at the time of the two previous debates, as someone who has worked on debate strategy and prep for US Senate candidates, I would be advising the former President to skip the debates.
In my view, with his commanding lead, President Trump could only lose ground to his opponents. He surely doesn’t need to introduce himself to voters, a gaffe could cost him support, and it denies his competitors the opportunity to deliver a blow on national television.
This will be the first debate since Vice President Pence dropped out and some other fringe candidates will be missing. At this point it appears that Haley and DeSantis will be on stage, along with Ramaswamy, and Christi. A fifth possible candidate on stage is SC Senator Tim Scott, but the Republican National Committee hasn’t made a final determination on his eligibility.
As former SC Governor Nikki Haley has moved up in the polls, she and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis have the most both to gain and lose. Haley has done well in the past debates and has tied DeSantis in many of the recent polls, while DeSantis needs to lay down a marker that he is the strongest candidate to go head-to-head with Trump as voting starts early in the new year.
November 17 deadline
The deadline for the expiration of the current Continuing Resolution (CR) of November 17 is fast approaching and Congress needs to decide what their next move will be. It is a real challenge for Mike Johnson, the new House Speaker, who has never played a key role in a critical decision that involves not only his House colleagues but the Senate and White House.
There have been reports circulating that the new Speaker would like to have a new CR that would run to January 15 or April 15, to give both Chambers time to act on the 12 Appropriation Bills. At this point none of the 12 bills have been passed.
Last week the Senate passed a so-called ‘minibus” bill that combined three budget areas into one bill: military construction-VA, Agriculture and Transportation-HUD. The bill passed by a solid bipartisan margin of 82Y to 15N. It will be sent to the House and the new Speaker and his leadership team will need to determine how to handle the process.
It is clear that much if not all the government will need a new CR by the 17th, and the Thanksgiving holiday gives Congress an additional incentive to pass legislation that avoids a holiday government shutdown. The challenge for Speaker Johnson will be how hard to push for budget cuts as part of the CR. He is likely to have little room for maneuvering. The legislative math is not good for the Republican Speaker. He only has a five-seat majority and there are likely more than five Republicans in the House who oppose CRs under any condition. If these NO on CR Republicans hold fast Speaker Johnson will need to find a bipartisan path to passing the CR, and budget cuts will be tough to add to a bipartisan CR. It is going to be a complicated budget week in DC.
Israel, Ukraine, supplemental bill
The President has requested $105B under an emergency supplemental request to fund aid to Israel, Ukraine, Pacific rim security and strengthening the Southern border. Last week the House passed an Israel only bill, but added cuts in the IRS budget, the money cut was to be used to hire new agents. The President has issued a veto threat on the House bill and Senate Leader Schumer has made it clear it will go nowhere in the Senate.
There may be a compromise path that Senate Republican Leader McConnell might lead to pass money for Israel and Ukraine but add some tough language and more money to deal with the flow of illegal immigrants at the Southern border. McConnell is a staunch supporter of combining military aid for the two wars but knows that getting tough on illegal immigration on the Southern border is likely essential to getting support from his Republican colleagues. McConnell will once again be a critical player in the coming days in trying to navigate a compromise.
FOMC meeting
Last week the Fed’s FOMC held rates steady. The September meeting minutes had shown some growing dissention on the Committee, but Chair Powell delivered a unanimous vote. As I have written, at the press conference, the Chair didn’t take rate increases completely off the table, but he clearly moved in that direction.
As usual it will be interesting to read the meeting minutes which will be released on November 21.
