The House returns this week with only 11 scheduled legislative days before the midnight September 30 deadline to approve federal spending prior to the beginning of the new fiscal year on October 1.
There appears to be a sharp difference in approaches between Republicans in the Senate and those in the House.
The Senate, which returned last week, appears to be working in a largely bipartisan fashion to start the process of approving the 12 spending bills, and at the same time approve a Continuing Resolution (CR) that would run to November to buy time for Congress to resolve their differences for spending in Fiscal Year (FY) 2024.
The Senate hopes to start the process of approving spending bills by combining the legislation to fund several less controversial departments in one consolidated bill. When the Congress has failed to pass budgets for most of the government they have passed a bill funding all, or nearly all, the government in one bill called an Omnibus Spending Bill. The Senate proposal is being referred to as a “minibus” funding the departments of Veterans Affairs, Transportation, Agriculture plus the FDA and military construction projects. Before the August/Labor Day break the House was able to narrowly pass the VA/Military Construction Bill on a vote of 219 Yes to 211 No. All Democrats and two Republicans voted NO.
Democrats wanted to see more spending for veterans, and opposed riders added by Republicans on issues ranging from abortion to DEI programs. The Republican leadership in the House tried to also pass the traditionally non-controversial spending bill for Agriculture and the FDA; but were stymied when they couldn’t get agreement among Republicans on food programs such as food stamps in the Department of Agriculture and the availability of the abortion pill by the FDA. These provisions led to opposition from all Democrats and are leading to the dilemma for the Republican leadership that they could only lose 4 votes in the Republican Conference. Some of the moderate Republicans had concerns both with the Agriculture spending levels and anti-abortion provisions, and the Republican leadership pulled the bill from the House calendar and sent the House home for August.
The White House and a bipartisan group of Senators have proposed a strategy where Congress approves a CR that runs into November and adds provisions from the President’s request for $40B in emergency supplemental funding.
The proposed emergency supplemental refills the coffers for FEMA’s emergency relief, gives more money for increased assistance at the Southern border, and the war in Ukraine. The Senate has made clear that there is bipartisan support for the President’s request to provide more money for Ukraine. However, in the House there is growing Republican dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine which could endanger a combination CR and Emergency Supplemental.
Speaker McCarthy has reportedly floated the idea among House Republicans that they pass a CR to keep the government open until mid-November and add money for the border and FEMA but not Ukraine. This is unlikely to be acceptable to either the Senate or the White House. Additionally, it is not clear if McCarthy can get 218 Republicans to vote for a CR that funds the government at current year levels and also not include controversial Republican policy priorities. In fact Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green has said she can’t support any CR if a Biden impeachment isn’t undertaken. While Rep. Green may be an outlier it would only take four other Republicans to join her and stop a CR without Democratic support.
In my view there could be a compromise on a CR where Republicans don’t insist on all their spending cuts and Democrats agree on more money for Republican proposals at the border, but this is far from an agreed-to deal at this point.
The bottom line is that with only three weeks to go it seems more likely than not that the US has a partial government shutdown on October 1.
Biden travels
Here is the White House communique from the G20 meeting.
There appear to be two highlights from the President’s trip. First, the Biden Administration continues to work to improve relations with Saudi Arabia. While in recent meetings President Biden worked to avoid contact with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with the work of Indian President Modi they conducted a public handshake. A diplomatic nuance that can be part of a larger effort to normalize relations. Second, the President told reporters that it is not US policy to “contain” China, and that the current economic challenges in China may have diminished China’s capabilities to invade Taiwan, a comment that will surely get pushback from Beijing. When asked about a potential meeting between the US President and President Xi Biden told reporters, referring to Xi, “he has his hands full right now.” However, Biden may call Xi in coming days and staff continue to work towards a meeting in November.
