Budget
The Senate returns this week after its August/Labor Day break. As the Senate returns, two inside the beltway issues are likely to grab Senators’ attention: the fate of Republican Leader McConnell and the hold Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville has placed on the confirmation of military promotions. Senator Tuberville says that his blocking of military nominations is a protest against the Pentagon policy permitting abortions, and that he will not budge until the policy is changed.
The military says that the nomination of 301 generals and admirals have been placed in limbo by the Senator’s actions. The bipartisan leadership will need to deal with this issue in the coming days.
This and other tough issues may be made more difficult as questions that are raised about the ability of Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell to remain as the Leader after his second “freeze” episode in Kentucky last week. While most Republican Senators have publicly rallied to his defense, there can be little doubt that behind the scenes a lot of discussions are taking place. If a third episode should occur in the coming weeks it is hard to see how McConnell could continue to serve as leader.
No one doubts his extraordinary legislative skills and he may be needed to play a crucial role as the House, Senate and White House seek a strategy to keep the government open. The deadline for action is October 1 for Congressional action on the budget.
With the Senate back and the House staying out for another week, an obvious question is whether or not the Senate could pass a Continuing Resolution (CR) and send it to the House for action. This raises an interesting point of Congressional procedure. Article I, Section 7, Clause 1 of the Constitution states: “All Bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives. But the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.” Some have questioned whether or not a CR would fall into this constitutional limitation.
From my days as a Senate aide I remember the slight-of-hand the Senate has used to get around this constitutional provision. The Senate regularly keeps technical House passed revenue bills, such as a tariff bill, at the Senate desk with no action leaving them available to take it up if they want to pass a revenue bill. As the constitution permits they add amendments, an amendment could be the CR to fund the entire US Government.
The Congress has several weeks to wrestle with this issue; watch for Senators looking for ways to act first on the CR and send it to the House.
Last week the White House requested $16B for FEMA as the emergency action agency is running low on funds. In the last few weeks FEMA has seen new demands on their resources with the horrific fires in Hawaii and hurricane Idalia in Florida. House Republicans have responded by calling for a separate emergency funding bill instead of adding it to the CR.
For Speaker McCarthy the politics of the CR became even more complicated last week when outspoken conservative Marjorie Taylor Green declared that she would not support a CR unless an impeachment inquiry is part of the deal. Other conservatives have called for limits on Ukraine funding and also cuts on Department of Justice inquiries into former President Trump. With only a five seat majority the road forward for the Speake is filled with landmines.
For his part the Speaker has made the point that he has been underestimated before, and that he is working full time to find an exit strategy for the budget and CR, but the House remains out of session until September 12.
China
Over the weekend Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo appeared on the Sunday talk shows and shed more light on her four day trip to China. The Commerce Secretary joined the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Treasury as part of the Biden Administration’s effort to have engagement with China.
Secretary Raimondo hailed as progress the decision by China and US to reestablish working groups focused on commercial issues and export control enforcement. China wants some of the limits on trade relaxed and the US wants more purchases of US goods by China.
Behind the scenes talks continue about a possible Biden/Xi meeting in November when Xi may come to San Francisco for the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperation or Apec meeting. Such a meeting would put a spotlight on the dialogue strategy being pursued by the Biden Administration.
