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Last Friday Fed Chair Powell gave his long anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for central bankers.  I didn't think Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was as hawkish as some had expected.  "Could" was a persistent word on what policy might be.  Data could warrant more increases but towards the end he said they could hold constant and await more data.  I think this is a signal for pausing  in September and data driven going forward.

In the minutes from the July meeting of the FOMC it was made clear that several of the Committee members have some level of concern that the Fed could over tighten and problems with the economy would follow.  This poses a new set of issues for Chair Powell as the Committee was united in the increases that were approved over the past year. 

During the July press conference after the Committee approved the 25bps hike, Powell made clear that in his view rate cuts were unlikely in 2023 but could be on the table next year.  Several commentators made the point that in his Jackson Hole remarks the word cut didn't appear.

Every time Chair Powell speaks he makes the point that at each meeting the Committee reviews the incoming data and there will be another CPI number before the September meeting.&n...

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