Fed and election focus of week ahead

After weeks of guessing what the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) may do on interest rates, Wednesday is decision day, and the all-important post-meeting press conference by Chair Powell happens around 2:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

As Chair of the Fed, Jay Powell has been consistent in wanting to telegraph policy and not surprise markets; therefore if there is any outcome other than a 75-bps increase, it would be a huge surprise. Central bankers talk regularly to each other which makes me believe that the European Central Bank’s 75-bps move this past week was not done in a vacuum. The main Fed news is unlikely to come from the interest rate action on Wednesday, but how Chair Powell describes future policy at his press conference.

The post-meeting presser is always a challenge for the Chair as he knows that three weeks later the minutes from the meeting will be released. This serves as a fact check of sorts on how Powell describes the meeting. Markets will be on alert for any signs that the central bank is ready to pivot, at least to a slower pace of rate increases.

Elections

As Election Day approaches there doesn’t appear to be any event that would stop what appears to be the inevitable gain by Republicans of enough seats to capture control of the House. The historical pa...
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