FOMC minutes, polling and midterms

Tomorrow the Fed will release the FOMC minutes from its September meeting.  The minutes should reveal the support Chair Powell has to continue rate increases and at what level. Last week’s strong employment numbers likely heightened the resolve of the Fed for more rate increases.  The next FOMC meeting is Nov 1 and 2, with the press conference on the afternoon of November 2.

One of the interesting aspects of the traditional post-FOMC press conference by the Fed Chair is that the Chair knows that three weeks later the minutes of the meeting will be released.  It acts as a fact check on comments made by Powell.  From comments made by Fed officials since the September FOMC meeting it appears that there is a strong consensus among the FOMC members for continuing the rate policy to lower inflation towards the Fed’s stated goal of 2%. 

There will be more data coming out before the next meeting of the FOMC in November including the September CPI number which will be released Thursday morning. The November meeting will occur just days before the midterm elections, and it will be interesting to see if the Chair’s press conference will be influenced by the strong desire of the central bank to be above politics.  It could be a real balancing act.

Polling

Befo...
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