The House returned for one day, Tuesday, to pass the $480B increase in the debt ceiling, the legislation then went to the White House where President Biden signed it. Treasury estimates that the new ceiling should carry the Department until early December, but calculating the cash flows of the US Government has always been difficult but with the changed patterns created by the pandemic the process is even more challenging. I have seen dates that range from December 3 to early January.

Next week both the House and Senate return with several major issues before they leave again for Thanksgiving. The Senate will largely be focused on confirming Biden Administration nominees that have been slowed by a group of Republicans led by Senator Ted Cruz.

In the House Democrats need to find a pathway to pass both the Senate approved bipartisan infrastructure bill, and the Build Back Better (BBB) Biden Administration social agenda under the Budget Reconciliation process. Speaker Pelosi needs to navigate the split between the nearly 100 members of the progressive caucus and the much smaller block of moderate Democrats. With only a four-seat majority both groups have to vote for the final product.

The Speaker also needs to see if she can get the progressives to allow a vote on the $1T Senate approved bipartisan infrastructure bill. When House moderate Democrats voted to approve the Budget Resolution, which unlocks the Budget Reconciliation process, the Speaker promised an infrastructure vote on September 27; however, progressives blocked the vote. Pelosi is now saying she would like a vote on infrastructure by October 31; but again progressives have threatened to block passage.

The White House is getting impatient with the House and badly needs a big victory that the $1T bipartisan infrastructure bill would provide. Not only is it the biggest infrastructure bill in a generation, but it is truly bipartisan getting 19 Republicans Senators to support passage. At this point it is not clear if the President has the ability to force a House vote and overcome progressive opposition. Senator Bernie Sanders isn’t helping by encouraging the House progressives to continue to block the bill in order to get the largest number possible in the BBB Budget Reconciliation bill.

While the Democratic leadership searches for a way to pass infrastructure and BBB Budget Reconciliation it also needs to make sure that a government funding bill is approved prior to the 12/3 deadline if a government shutdown is to be avoided. Last month Republicans were willing to support a Continuing Resolution (CR) that funds the government at current levels, but it is not clear if they will support a CR again after Thanksgiving.

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