While the midnight deadline on Friday October 1 is quickly approaching there seem to be some signs of movement to prevent a government shutdown, but like everything in DC, it will be ugly.
For show on Monday the Senate will try to invoke cloture and consider the House passed CR/Debt limit bill which is opposed by Republicans. The cloture vote will not get anywhere near the required 60 votes. Republicans have said they will vote for a clean CR in order to avert the shutdown. It appears that with only days to act before the October 1 deadline, the House will pass a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) without the debt ceiling provision and send it to the Senate. The Senate should then have the bipartisan majority needed to pass the CR and avoid a shutdown. The CR will defer the next government funding deadline until early December.
House Democrats have another deadline next week as Pelosi made an agreement with House moderate Democrats that if they voted for the Democrats Budget Resolution there would be a vote on the Senate passed bipartisan infrastructure bill on September 27, Monday.
However, progressive Democrats have threatened to vote against the bipartisan infrastructure measure until the $3.5T Reconciliation Bill is passed that includes the human infrastructure package. Progressive Democrats say they have 40 Democrats ready to vote NO on the infrastructure bill and Pelosi has a problem. At one point some thought that as many as 20 House Rs might vote for the bill, but now they are down to 0 to 10. The bill will require nearly all Ds to vote yes. The $1T bill is the largest infrastructure bill in history. But progressives are concerned that once this passes the push for the $3.5T human infrastructure will diminish. In order to round up progressive votes the House Budget Committee is scheduled to hold a Saturday meeting to put together the framework for the Reconciliation Bill favored by progressives.
At this point it is up to Pelosi and Biden need to get the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed. It is hard to believe that either the Speaker or the White House would let the infrastructure bill be defeated in a House vote due to lack of support from Democrats.
In my view Democrats need to get a positive story out – Afghanistan, border mess, high Covid cases – all explain Biden’s sinking poll numbers. I just don’t get it, why stop a good Democratic story of success on a bill that will create jobs and help build everything bridges and roads to highspeed internet. Busy week coming up for Democratic leaders in DC.
Once Congress passes legislation that avoids a government shutdown, they will need to address that threat of an unprecedented US Government default caused by the debt ceiling limit. Both parties are committed to avoiding a default and increase the debt ceiling, but nobody is sure of plan. There is even some thought floating around Democrats in DC that maybe it can somehow be done without legislation – not sure how.
Republican Leader McConnell has said the USA can’t default, but Democrats must increase the debt ceiling without any Republican votes. One complicated route advocated by McConnell is for Democrats to use a second budget resolution and then a second reconciliation bill that can increase the ceiling and not be filibustered in the Senate, but it is really a messy process. There is agreement among all but a few Republicans that a government default isn’t really a policy option but at this point the strategy to raise the debt ceiling is not clear. Those who closely follow government cash flows believe the drop-dead date is around October 25.
