Infrastructure: One Step Forward
This past week saw a major move forward in the effort to get Congress to pass a major bill funding traditional infrastructure. There seemed to be some anger from the Trump property in New Jersey, where the former President urged Senate Republicans to oppose the infrastructure deal. Today, he issued a statement accusing Senate Republicans of “caving” to Democrats on the deal.
Frustration by the former President is understandable, from the earliest days of his Presidential campaign he was a strong advocate for infrastructure. In June of 2020 the Trump White House came out with a $1T infrastructure proposal. For many reasons the Trump plan never got out of the starting gate; and he finds it difficult to accept that President Biden could accomplish what he failed to do.
On Wednesday, the Senate voted 67 to 32 on a parliamentary procedure which allows them to move forward with a debate on the $1T infrastructure deal that had been cobbled together by a group of Republican and Democratic Senators. While the vote was an encouraging sign there are still several obstacles as the bill makes its way through the legislative process.
First, and very importantly, at this point the actual legislative text hasn’t been released. Senate staff if busying writing the actual bill with the hope of introducing the bill in the next day or so. The next step, after the bill is written, will be to bring the legislation to the Senate floor. The challenge with a tightly written compromise is that amendments run the risk of undermining the tightly negotiated deal. Opponents will offer amendments that might appeal to Republicans, that if accepted will undo the delicate balance in the bill.
The expectation in Washington is that Leader Schumer won’t allow Senators to leave for their August break until the infrastructure bill is approved by the Senate.
The White House and Congressional Democrats have struck an intra-party agreement where progressive Democrats will support the bipartisan infrastructure bill with the promise that items on the progressive agenda, that are not in the bill, will be approved as part of Budget Reconciliation. Speaker Pelosi has taken the position that the House will not consider the bipartisan legislation until the Senate passes the Budget Reconciliation Bill. This strategy is central to maintain progress support for the deal. However, if the Senate does pass the bipartisan deal there is likely to be broad support from mayors, governors, contractors, other constituencies and probably the White House to get the bipartisan package passed and allow long overdue infrastructure projects to get started.
Bottomline is that one good day doesn’t assure the White House a victory. President Trump isn’t going to disappear and will be egging on Republican Senators to walk away from the bill. An amendment could be added during the floor debate that makes it difficult for Republicans to remain supportive. However, 17 Republicans voting to move ahead with the bill is a very encouraging development, and at this point appears to demonstrate that the bipartisan infrastructure proposal has the votes to pass the Senate.
After the deal passes the Senate it will need to go to the House for approval. As with any carefully structured deal each provision has been carefully negotiated, and action by the House on one part of the deal could cause other parts of the agreement to fall apart. The House may be faced with a take-it or leave-it alternative and the White House is likely to be very supportive of a take-it strategy.
The White House knows that Democrats have a real challenge to hold on to their narrow margins in the House and Senate in 2022; and the passage of a major, bipartisan infrastructure program is a big deal in arguing for keeping Democrats in charge.
