Covid Relief Moves Forward, Trump to Re-Emerge
The House is expected to pass President Biden’s $1.9T Covid Relief Bill tonight. The bill is being considered under the Budget Reconciliation process in order to make it possible to be considered by the Senate under rules that prohibit a filibuster by Republicans.
Last night the Senate Parliamentarian gave an advisory opinion that under the so-called Byrd Rule that governs Reconciliation in the Senate the provision to raise the minimum wage to $15.00 an hour would not be in order. As a Senate aide when the Reconciliation process was being developed it seemed to me that increasing the minimum wage was beyond the scope of Reconciliation. The process was developed to make it easier to make budget decisions on an expedited process, and in the Senate avoid filibusters. To be eligible for Reconciliation a matter had to have a direct budget impact either with changes to spending levels or revenue. President Biden, a Senate veteran, had hinted that while he favored the increase he had doubts if it would be ruled eligible under Reconciliation.
The removal of the minimum wage increase from the Senate version of the bill creates a legislative complication in that the House will pass its version tonight with the $15.00 an hour provision, and it will not be in the Senate version to be worked on next week. The next big question in the process will be whether or not the Senate adds or deletes any other provision to the Senate version of the bill. One idea that is being actively considered by Senator Sanders and others is placing a penalty tax on employers who don’t pay their workers at least $15.00 an hour. While the details are still being worked on, one idea would be to place a 5% surcharge on payrolls for non-compliant employers. Since it’s a revenue measure it should pass the scrutiny of the Senate Parliamentarian.
The Senate is expected to start working on the House passed bill next week. After the Senate completes action the House will need to decide whether or not they can accept the Senate version of the bill. The goal remains to get the legislation to the President for his signature prior to the March 14 unemployment cliff when federal unemployment programs expire. Pelosi, Schumer and the White House should all be in close communication next week so as to assure House acceptance of any changes made by the Senate. Obviously, the Senate removal of the minimum wage increase will be a tough pill for the House progressives to swallow, but the benefits of the large package seems to outweigh the goal of a $15.00 minimum wage. If the Senate does add the penalty payroll tax that might make the final bill more acceptable to House Democrats. But in any event the idea of increasing the minimum wage is not dead and will come back again this year.
Trump at CPAC
Former President Donald Trump will speak on Sunday at the conservative Republican gathering in Orlando. The CPAC annual meeting has long been a launching pad for Republican Presidential candidates and many who are thinking of running in 2024 are lined up to speak. In fact private citizen Donald Trump gave his first major political speech at CPAC in 2011, it set the tone for the campaign he would launch in 2015. Trump thrives in front of large, friendly crowds and that is what will greet him on Sunday. While he reportedly has a scripted speech, he hates reading from the teleprompter and will likely give the freewheeling train of thought speech.
Reports from the Trump camp say that the former President will get up close to the line of announcing a 2024 candidacy but will stop just short of formally becoming a candidate. However, it is hard to predict what he will do when greeted by his loyal followers.
The strength that Trump brings to a potential run was seen this past week when Senate Leader McConnell, who laid into Trump’s role in the 01/06 insurrection at the Capitol, said that he would “absolutely” support Trump if he is the 2024 nominee.
In my view it is a very important speech as without doubt Trump is the titular head of the Republican Party. While McConnell and McCarthy may hold the senior elected positions, their role is minor compared to the former President, and Trump relishes the spotlight that he will carefully nurture for the next few years. The future strategy for Trump starts with the Sunday speech.
