Biden, Democrats Push $1.9 Trillion Program Forward
In the early hours of Friday morning Vice President Kamala Harris cast her first tie-breaking vote to approve the Budget Resolution by the Senate. The Budget Resolution is a non-binding procedure that is part of the Budget Act of 1974 which establishes the process under which the Reconciliation process was established.
The House will approve the Senate passed measure and then the various Committees of the House and Senate will start to write the Reconciliation Bill that implements President Biden’s $1.9T Covid Relief proposals.
While there remains some slight chance that a bipartisan compromise can be reached, President Biden and Congressional Democrats have made clear they are more than willing to use the Budget Reconciliation process to push through the $1.9T measure. However, during the next few weeks there may be some modifications in the program put forward by the Biden Administration.
During the Senate debate on the Budget Resolution there was a vote to curtail the $1,400.00 individual stimulus payment for “high earners.” While “high earners” was not defined there is a growing expectation that the Biden recommendation of individuals making up to $75,000 and families making up to $150,000 will be reduced. Under discussion is lowering the individual threshold to $50,000 and perhaps lowering the amount for each child. The House Ways and Means Committee will be the next legislative stop for the stimulus payments and the threshold decision should be made in the next two weeks.
Another area of controversy is the Biden proposal to increase the minimum wage over five years to reach the level of $15 an hour. Senate Republicans offered a motion that states there will be no minimum wage increase during the pandemic. In a surprise move the new Chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Bernie Sanders, accepted the Republican proposal and avoided putting Democrats on record for or against the minimum wage increase. There have been serious parliamentary questions as to whether or not increasing the minimum wage is allowed under the Senate rules that govern Reconciliation and it is not clear that there are 50 Democratic votes to increase the minimum wage at this point. West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin has been very public in his opposition to the minimum wage proposal, and with no Republican support that kills the idea.
Next week the House will start to work on putting the broad ideas outlined by the White House into legislative proposals with the goal of passing the Reconciliation Bill by the end of the month. Next Tuesday the Senate is scheduled to begin the Impeachment Trial of President Trump. Unless there is a dramatic change there seem little reason to believe that the former President will be convicted. As seen in an earlier test vote of 55 to 45 Republicans made clear they are unlikely to vote guilty and will hold to the position that it is not constitutional to impeach a former President. The only question at the point is how long the trial will take.
March 14 is the date federal unemployment insurance expires, and Democrats are united that they want the Covid Relief Bill passed before that deadline. If the House passes its version of the bill by the end of the month that will give the Senate at least a week to work on the House passed bill, and then the two versions will need to be reconciled in order to get a bill to the President’s desk. As a former Congressional aide I know the dirty secret that Congress can actually work quickly if they need to, especially when one party has control of the process. A final Reconciliation Bill passed by March 14 is a reasonable expectation.
