Chaotic Week With DC Change Ahead
On a personal note, last Sunday was the 50th anniversary of my taking the oath as a Congressional staffer when I became the legislative assistant for my hometown Congressman while finishing my senior year at American University. In 1971 there were large anti-Vietnam protests in DC and the Capitol was surrounded by armed troops. One day I was driving to work, and my car was surrounded by protesters and troops came to my rescue and escorted me up to Capitol Hill. Disruption and even violence are not new. The lack of preparation on Capitol Hill Wednesday was inexcusable. In my Monday note for Fundstrat, I wrote about the likelihood of trouble with those attending the rally on the National Mall, so I just don’t understand how the Capitol stood basically unprotected. A very troubling day for the USA.
Georgia race: It’s hard to believe that the news of two Democratic wins in Georgia was all but overlooked by the invasion of the Capitol; it was an historic election which will change control of the Senate on Jan. 20th when Vice President Harris starts to preside.
The 50/50 split will make passage of far-left progress legislation unlikely; the most important advantage of Senate control is setting the agenda. Chuck Schumer rather than Mitch McConnell will be deciding what bills come to the Senate floor. In the past few weeks it was Leader McConnell who blocked a vote on a clean $2000 stimulus bill, now Democrats will be making that decision.
There have been 50/50 splits before, and it increases the leverage of each individual Senator in the Majority Party. One Democratic Senator siding with united Republicans can stop a bill, and there are a handful of moderate Democrats.
What legislation will move? Everyone I talk to in DC believes that Covid relief will dominate the first 100 days of the Biden Administration. The Congress is likely to consider another round of individual stimulus checks though it may be less than $2,000. The amount is now the focus and the reality that it will pass guides the decision. Money for state and local government will be in the next round of Covid relief, and a higher weekly unemployment supplement is under review.
While Covid is top of the agenda immigration is likely to be acted on early in the new Administration. Every Democrat I know believes that a serious shortcoming of the early Obama Administration was not acting on immigration. There are clearly at least 10 Republicans who support DACA and other immigration measures which should allow the issue to move without death by filibuster.
Healthcare and the ACA may also be an early issue in the new Administration as a decision by the SCOTUS is likely at some point in the spring. There is a possibility the Court will rule against the ACA but give Congress a window to make needed changes. The Medicare Part D prescription drug programs are also are likely to see action aimed at lowering the price of drugs. The original Part D program passed under President G.W. Bush prohibited the government from using its purchasing power to negotiate drug prices; repealing the limitation is high on the list of ideas that are being discussed.
46th President: President Trump admitting last night that a new Administration will take over on January 20th removes one level of concern about the transition; and no one was surprised when the President announced that he would not attend the ceremony. Hopefully, officials will be better prepared with Capitol security on the big day.
House Democrats seem committed to a second impeachment with a vote next week. It’s not clear if the Senate will take any action. Impeachment would require a Senate trial. Time seems to be on the side of the President to leave as scheduled at noon on Jan. 20th.
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