Stimulus Deal Still Possible Before Election

L . Thomas Block

This may sound crazy, but I think a stimulus deal is still possible before the election. Earlier this week, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi had a tough interview on CNN when Wolf Blitzer ended by asking the Speaker if she is letting “perfect be the enemy of good” in getting a deal. The Speaker is also hearing from some of her members who are back home campaigning that the policy of saying no to the President’s $1.8T offer, while unemployment claims grow, is becoming harder to defend.

If the Speaker’s motives are basically related to the Presidential campaign, maybe it is late enough in the game to give the President a win. Plus, there is a major split among DC Republicans as Senate Leader McConnell has said the Senate will consider a $500B deal and that he doesn’t support the bigger deal. A public fight between Republicans, two weeks before the election, may help the Democrats accept the President’s deal.

In my view, the President has no higher priority than signing a stimulus bill in a gala White House ceremony to help his campaign. This is in fact what Pelosi doesn’t want to see; but a mud fight between the President and Senate Republicans might help minimize this concern. This may be a unique period for a deal that could disappear when the votes are counted. A defeated Donald Trump is unlikely to be in a mood to deal, and McConnell is unlikely to be energized to deal win or lose with his Senate majority.

In the past few days, the President has chastised Secretary Mnuchin for “not coming home with the bacon,” and telling Senate Republicans to “go big or go home.” While McConnell has opposed the big bill, it is hard to imagine him saying no to the President on the eve of the election. Today, economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the White House would be able to line up the needed Republican votes to get a bill through the Senate.

Bottom line on stimulus: It could happen as final act of crazy campaign.

Next Thursday in the final debate moderated by NBC’s Kristen Welker. The general consensus is that the President hurt his cause in the first debate with his yelling and interrupting. What debate persons will President Trump bring to next week’s debate? Does he just talk to his base that loves his tough guy approach or try to broaden his appeal to the suburban women he pleaded “like me” at a rally this week.

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