Trump’s COVID-19 Diagnosis Hurts the Trump Campaign
The political world was rocked by the news that the President and First Lady tested positive for Covid-19 late Thursday night. The President had strived to change the subject of the campaign from the virus to other issues and during the Tuesday night debate even ridiculed former Vice President Biden for what he deemed excessive wearing of a mask. The President tried to have a de-facto end of the virus with large rallies where there was no social distancing and little mask wearing. This strategy has now been turned on its head.
Friday morning I was interviewed on the CNBC show Squawk Box and when asked about the impact of the COVID diagnosis for the President, my view was that it hurts the Trump campaign as no one is as good a campaigner for Trump as Trump. Taking the best player off the field in the final minutes of the game can’t be a good strategy.
The White House has reported that the President has “mild symptoms” but that can’t be good for a person who is overweight and 74 years old. The President’s health won’t be an issue but the implicit statement it makes on the seriousness of the virus will be hard to escape.
On the policy front, the government dodged a bullet when, at the last minute, the Senate passed and the President signed legislation keeping the government funded past the election with a new government shutdown deadline of December 11.
There continues to be some hope that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi can reach agreement on a new virus relief package. The September jobs numbers made clear that the rate of the recovery is slowing and new layoffs from Disney parks to airlines are growing. Both Democrats and the White House are supportive of another round of funding for the airlines with the proviso that all the money goes to keep employees on the payroll, While there has been some talk of a standalone bill for the airlines both the Administration and Speaker Pelosi would like to put the airline money in a broader relief package.
The House passed a strictly partisan $2.2T bill that gives Democratic Members something to talk about as they return to their districts to campaign. However, Mnuchin and Pelosi continue to talk and while the House has technically gone home they can quickly return to DC if a deal is struck. The Senate Republicans are reluctant to pass another $1.5T plus bill but they would have little choice if the President endorses the legislation. I believe passage by Election Day is possible, but even if the stalemate continues a relief bill is likely by year end.
