With today’s breakdown in negotiations, for the first time in recent weeks I am beginning to have some concern that the two sides in DC will stop talking and let a deal hang in the balance.

I find it almost unbelievable that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi would come to the conclusion that no supplemental unemployment payment is better than a payment under $600. The White House has reportedly offered $400 until December 15, that is in the neighborhood that I thought a deal would be cut. Both sides have offered a $1200 stimulus check, a continuation of the eviction moratorium, aid to schools, forbearance on student loans, and money for testing and these of course won’t happen without a deal.

I have been saying a deal by next Friday, August 14, so there is still time, but both sides need to appreciate the harm that will be done to our consumer oriented economy if this money is not sent quickly to the millions of unemployed.

The President has said that if no agreement is closed by tonight he will start issuing Executive Orders to continue the moratorium on evictions, maintain supplemental unemployment payments at some level likely below $600, maintain the forbearance on student loans, and his personal favorite a holiday on the payroll tax. I think this is a really good strategy.

It puts the President in the position of helping people while Congress dithers, dramatically and makes the point that he is a leader of action. It also potentially puts Democrats in the uncomfortable position of going to Court to challenge the action and therefore taking a position that would allow evictions and stop payments to hard hit families that have lost their jobs.

In my view, the Executive Orders are likely unconstitutional but I think unemployed voters who are getting money will be grateful for the President’s action and not care much about the legal niceties. It may also push the Democrats into a more flexible negotiating position.

My target date for a bill remains August 14, it could be a busy weekend in DC.

Disclosures (show)

Stay up to date with the latest articles and business updates. Subscribe to our newsletter

Articles Read 1/2

🎁 Unlock 1 extra article by joining our Community!

Stay up to date with the latest articles. You’ll even get special recommendations weekly.

Already have an account? Sign In

Want to receive Regular Market Updates to your Inbox?

I am your default error :)