It was a more chaotic week than usual in Washington, D.C., as party differences over Covid-19 relief bill allowed for the expiration of the $600 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit and lapse of the eviction moratorium on July 31. We were also treated to an unusual if not irregular suggestion by the President that Election Day be delayed.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and the White House have been negotiating with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer all week but with little progress to show for it. With weekly new unemployment claims still above 1 million, an estimated 17 million unemployed, and the spreading virus slowing a return to work; voter patience is likely to run thin with partisan bickering in DC. While I expect an agreement in the next two weeks, the political landscape is messy.

President Trump is showing his populist colors by supporting a continuation of supplemental unemployment payments above the $200 level suggested in the Senate Republican proposal, and the President would also support an extension of the eviction moratorium, also not in the Senate bill.

There were even reports late Thursday that Senator Mitch McConnell’s “red line” of a liability shield for business was not an absolute requirement for the President. Congressional Republicans have shown some small breaks with the President by not including the payroll tax cut in their bill, opposed the White House request for a new FBI building, and a quick rebuke of the idea to delay national elections.

President Trump knows that with his slipping poll numbers he needs to solidify support from his base, many of whom may be unemployed and looking for his leadership to maintain the payments that allowed many to put food on the table and make essential payments during their unemployment. For his part the President makes clear that the job losses are not the fault of American workers but that of China and unemployment payments are his top priority.

Negotiations will continue over the weekend, lapse of benefits will increase the pressure to find an agreement, and deals may start to be cut next week.

The original target date for a final bill was August 7, but that could slip. I still expect an agreement to be reached in August.

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