Next week the U.S. Senate returns and will turn its attention to the next step in coronavirus relief. Two weeks ago the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives passed a $3 trillion package that included an extension of the $600 federal supplemental unemployment insurance (IU) benefit, another round of individual stimulus checks and a program for the government to pay the COBRA health insurance premiums for laid off workers.
Unsurprisingly, this bill was dead on arrival in the Republican-controlled Senate, while President Trump threatened to veto the House bill. Now that another week has passed, and with it another 2 million unemployment claims, the Senate leadership will start to work on a bill and try to get something to the President by July 4.
As America starts to re-open up there is growing skepticism about both an individual check to all adults and children and the $600 UI a week payment. Senators and the White House are starting to look for more targeted programs.
One idea getting increased attention is to modify the supplemental unemployment payment so as to allow some money to continue to flow after a worker goes back into the workforce. An issue that has emerged is that many service workers are collecting more in unemployment benefits than they received at work. Several Republicans have proposed cutting the size of the check both as the unemployment rate falls in different states, and also reduce the benefit to $400 and gradually phase out the payment when a worker becomes employed.
The White House has started to look towards rebuilding the economy with proposals ranging from tax incentives to bring jobs back to America to an extension of the Trump tax cuts for two to four more years. The House is unlikely to accept these proposals until one more relief bill is passed, but as the two chambers and the White House look for a compromise some incentives for new US manufacturing could be considered.
China
The actions of the Chinese government towards Hong Kong, along with the push by the Trump Administration to blame the spread of the coronavirus on the communist Chinese government foreshadows increased tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Friday, Trump said he will move to revoke Hong Kong’s special trading status, but didn’t say when or what privileges, such as tariff exemptions, would be yanked. The president said that Hong Kong is no longer entitled to special treatment by the US because it is no longer is autonomous from mainland China.
The Phase 1 trade deal remains a top accomplishment of the President’s first term, and farmers in key battleground states are anticipating increased purchases from China. It is a complicated relationship that we will be following closely in the coming weeks.