Just as on Wall Street, things slow down during the holidays in Washington, D.C., at least slower than normal.

Nevertheless, President Donald Trump is likely to return for a January filled with positive headlines on trade, one of his principal campaign issues. The White House sent out signals that the Phase One trade deal with China was nearly drafted and a January White House signing ceremony was in the initial stages of talks with Beijing.
Additionally, the Senate is poised to approved revised NAFTA trade deal with Mexico and Canada, known as the USMCA.

In 2020 investors might find it hard to separate policy from politics as every action has some connection to the Presidential race. The President's narrow margin of victory in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania was made possible due to large pluralities in rural parts of the three states.

Unsurprisingly then, the trade news will focus on the pluses for farmers. Agricultural interests have long been among the chief advocates of approving the USMCA as it is viewed as a big win for American farmers. With the more difficult vote in the House now complete, Republicans should be able to stage manage a big vote and appropriate victory march for the President when USMCA is approved.

Similarly, while the text of the Phase ...

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