Big Trade Week: US-China Phase 1 and New NAFTA Deals

It was a very positive week on U.S.-China trade news with the announcement of a Phase One deal between the two and an agreement between the White House and House Democrats on a revised NAFTA, the so-called USMCA.

It’s unclear at this point, however, whether the Phase One China agreement will need Congressional action but the USMCA will need to be ratified by the House and Senate.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi seems assured of the votes to secure passage by the House, perhaps as early as next week, and President Donald Trump should be able to help round up any wavering Republicans to assure approval by the Senate.

Another issue that may be ripe for approval in 2020 is some action on the price of prescription drugs. The House passed legislation this past week that was championed by Speaker Pelosi, and while it has sections that are strongly opposed by Congressional Republicans, the idea to cap out of pocket expenses by Medicare recipients is one that has the support of some Republicans including President Trump.

This coming week will see the next Democratic debate on December 19, but it is likely to be overshadowed by the politics of impeachment after an expected yes vote by the House.

The overwhelming victory by British Conservatives this past week could be seen as an early warning sign to U.S. Democrats that voters in Western democracies are hesitant to make too dramatic a move to the left. The British Labor Party made the same mistake the Democrats did in 2016 of talking down to their constituents. There might be a lesson in that. The Democratic fields seems far from a defining moment that pushes a clear winner to the finish line.

Figure: Top Trump Tweets

Big Trade Week: US-China Phase 1 and New NAFTA Deals
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